Harvey may be among the world’s most costly recent catastrophes

Risk modeler estimates up to $90 billion in losses

As Tropical Depression Harvey winds down, its full economic impact is still unclear. Risk-modeling company RMS estimates $70 billion to $90 billion in losses from wind, storm surge and flood damage, most of it in the Houston metropolitan area. That would make the storm among the world’s most costly catastrophes since at least 1970.

And this is happening in what was considered a few short weeks ago as a fairly tame weather year. According to Swiss Re, total economic losses from disasters were $44 billion in the first half of 2017, down 62 percent from the first half in 2016. The biggest losses were from thunderstorms, and more than half of the $44 billion was insured. Although forecasters are reluctant to estimate how much of Harvey’s damage insurers might pay, Chuck Watson, a disaster modeler with Enki Research, puts the figure at about 27 percent, far less than the 47 percent paid out for Hurricane Katrina.

Costliest insured losses

Rank	Event	Insured loss ($B)	Victims	Date (start)	Country/region
1	Hurricane Katrina; storm surge, damage to oil rigs	80.7	1,836	Aug. 25, 2005	U.S., Gulf of Mexico
2	Earthquake (Mw 9.0) triggers tsunami; aftershocks	37.3	19,135	March 11, 2011	Japan
3	Hurricane Sandy; storm surge	30.1	237	Oct. 24, 2012	U.S., Caribbean, Canada
4	Hurricane Andrew; floods	27.4	43	Aug. 23, 1992	U.S., Bahamas
5	Terror attack on WTC, Pentagon and other buildings	25.5	2,982	Sept. 11, 2001	U.S.
6	Northridge Earthquake (Mw 6.7)	24.8	61	Jan. 17, 1994	U.S.
7	Hurricane Ike; floods, damaged to oil rigs	22.6	136	Sept. 6, 2008	U.S., Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico
8	Earthquake (6.1) aftershocks	17.1	815	Feb. 22, 2011	New Zealand
9	Hurricane Ivan; damage to oil rigs	16.4	181	Sept. 2, 2004	U.S., Caribbean, Venezuela
10	Heavy monsoon rains, extreme flooding	16.0	124	July 27, 2011	Thailand
11	Hurricane Wilma; torrential rains, flooding	15.4	35	Oct. 19, 2005	U.S., Mexico, Caribbean
12	Winter Storm Vivian	14.5	64	Feb. 25, 1990	Switzerland, Germany
13	Hurricane Rita; floods, damage to oil rigs	13.2	34	Sept. 20, 2005	U.S., Gulf of Mexico
14	Drought in the Corn Belt	11.5	123	July 15, 2012	U.S.
15	Hurricane Charley	10.0	24	Aug. 11, 2004	U.S., Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico

Sources: Swiss Re Institute, *The National Flood Insurance Program/FEMA and Cat Perils

Methodology: Costliest insured losses—Bloomberg ranked the costliest catastrophes from 1970 to 2017 based on insured losses, which are shown in 2016 dollars. Loss includes property and business interruption, excluding liability and life insurance losses. Victims include dead and missing. Mw refers to Moment Magnitude, which is based on seismic moment and is used to measure the size of large earthquakes. Costliest floods in the U.S.—Floods are ranked according to estimated economic losses, which are adjusted for GDP growth and shown in 2016 dollars. Ranking reflects the period of 1978 through 2016. Figures are for water damage only; wind damage is excluded.

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