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The history of bonds — at least since yields hit record lows last year

November 1, 2017

History, as Kurt Vonnegut reminded us, is merely a list of surprises. The next world war will certainly not start with the assassination of an Austro-Hungarian archduke. You're probably not going to make a fortune peddling pet rocks. On the...

Treasuries rise after Fed officials say economy needs support

September 23, 2013

Treasury 10-year note yields dropped to almost the lowest level this month as Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William C. Dudley said the U.S. economy has yet to show “any meaningful pickup” in momentum. Prices of government securities...

How to prepare for rising Treasury rates, as if

June 29, 2012

We know how this is supposed to play out. Conventional wisdom says bond rates will rise, punishing investors in long-term securities as bond prices -- true to their inverse relationship with rates -- tumble. U.S. Treasuries, the most interest...

Is this the start of the Treasury rout?

March 30, 2012

Treasuries were headed for their steepest quarterly decline since the last three months of 2010 while corporate bonds surged as the world's largest economy showed signs of improvement. U.S. government securities lost 1 percent since Dec. 31...

Attention Treasury investors: Wages on the rise

March 2, 2012

The biggest six-month increase in U.S. worker pay in almost five years helps lay the ground for a pickup in consumer spending, the largest part of the economy. Wages and salaries in the third and fourth quarters grew a combined $197.3 billion,...

Leon Cooper on Treasuries: 'Your capital is being confiscated'

February 23, 2012

Leon Cooperman, founder of equity hedge fund Omega Advisors Inc., said buying U.S. Treasuries is the least attractive investment in a world of “financial repression.” Bonds will be the worst place for investors to put their money for the...

Get out your microscopes: Treasuries likely to draw lowest yield ever

December 20, 2011

The Treasury's $35 billion sale of five-year notes may draw a record low yield of 0.885 percent, according to the average forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of seven of the Federal Reserve's 21 primary dealers. The securities, which mature...

Treasuries monumentally overpriced, Fed model shows

September 6, 2011

A financial model created by economists at the Federal Reserve that includes expectations for interest rates, growth and inflation shows 10-year notes are the most overvalued ever. As Treasuries hover near record low yields amid stagnant U.S....

The buck stops fear? Treasury-wary advisers should consider cash

July 27, 2011

As the Washington debt limit spectacle grinds on, financial advisers might want to consider their options with regard to cash management if for no other reason than peace of mind. Granted, in the event of a full-blown default by the U.S. Treasury,...

Gross ups bet against Uncle Sam

May 10, 2011

Bill Gross, who runs the world's biggest bond fund at Pacific Investment Management Co., increased his bet against U.S. government debt in April just as Treasuries had their biggest rally in eight months. Pimco's $240.7 billion Total Return...

Get shorting: Bill Gross now betting against Treasuries

April 11, 2011

Bill Gross, who runs the world's biggest bond fund at Pacific Investment Management Co., bet against U.S. government-related debt last month and boosted cash to be the largest of the Total Return Fund's holdings. Pimco's $236 billion fund had...

How to play the coming bond bust

March 21, 2011

The Treasury bond bears are out and about—and getting bolder. On Mar. 9, Pacific Investment Management's Bill Gross announced that his $237 billion Total Return Fund, the world's largest bond fund, had shed all U.S. government securities....

With Gross buying, Treasuries calm as debt cap approaches

October 7, 2013

The world's biggest investors are finding government bonds becoming safer, not more risky, as the deadline to avoid the first American default approaches. The yield on 10-year U.S. bonds dropped to a two-month low of 2.58% on Oct. 3, after Treasury...

TIPs trip Gross — but Gundlach doesn't fall for it

July 5, 2013

On April 19, three weeks before he called the end of the 30-year bull market in bonds, Bill Gross said he was buying inflation-linked Treasuries, a bet that money printing by the world's central banks would push up consumer prices. While Treasuries...

The Fed ponders ignoring its inflation mandate

October 17, 2016

About that 2% inflation target, the Fed's Janet Yellen is now hedging her bets. Whatever it takes to avoid moving interest rates off the floor. Dishing about a “high-pressure economy.” Despite all those big speaking fees, it turns out a...

Will bond yields see normal levels again soon?

May 30, 2013

With the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond hovering around a 13-month high of 2.12% following a spike this week, there is reason to think that the combination of investor psychology and economic realities will start pushing bond yields back...

Rout or no rout? Treasury bond experts go with the latter

May 7, 2013

Bond investors are gaining confidence that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke will unwind the central bank's unprecedented $3.3 trillion balance sheet without sparking a crash similar to 1994, when Alan Greenspan surprised the market by...

Fallen star Heebner places astronomical bet against Treasuries

February 27, 2013

Money manager Kenneth Heebner, convinced that a growing U.S. economy will eventually prompt the Federal Reserve to boost interest rates, has bet 21 percent of his CGM Focus Fund (CGMFX) on a decline in U.S. Treasuries. The $1.44 billion fund,...

Inflation on the rise? Market says not so much

October 1, 2012

Bill Gross, who runs the world's biggest bond fund, says the Federal Reserve's open-ended plan to flood the economy with $40 billion a month will ignite inflation. The options market is signaling that won't happen anytime soon. Demand to protect...

Investors at sea, so Treasury preps floating-rate notes

August 1, 2012

The U.S. Treasury Department said today it is developing a floating-rate note program that could be operational in a year or more, while it is preparing for possible negative-rate bidding. The Treasury also plans to sell $72 billion in notes...

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