Consuelo Mack WealthTrack
What will be the investment game changer in 2013?
In part two of their interview, ISI Group's Ed Hyman and BlackRock's Dennis Stattman discuss a potential surprise for investors.
This week on Wealth Track investment game changers, in part
of our exclusive interview with Ed Hyman, Wall Street's long
time number one economist and Block Rock's great investor Dennis
Stattman. They identify with who would be the three biggest
players of 2013, next on Consuelo Mack Wealth Track. Tell
us about, you know, the outlook for Japan and then
that could be the big, you know, surprise in 2013,
right? -I've been born so many times in Japan. I
have no finger left to really touch one, but I'm
watching it. I was in Japan, in Tokyo, when Abe
-Uh-huh. -emergence occur which was almost overnight. -since Shinz? Abe,
right. -The Prime Minister and it was a landslide victory,
which was not-- It was certain he was gonna win,
but it wasn't certain by what margin and it was
a landslide victory, and so this is a pretty good
chance for Japan to shine. The markets have responded very
strongly. The Yen, was their focused on, has weaken significantly,
which is what they want. -Right, versus the dollar, uh-huh.
-I guess versus all currencies. -All currencies, right. You're always
well on that and as intended, right, to make your
products more competitive, right, and they will have a new
head of the central bank in a few months and
that new head will be much more [unk] than Shirakawa
the current head has been. -Meaning, that he want to
ease more, he won't be afraid of inflation. He'll-- -Right.
-And if I could go back to earlier thoughts, you
know, this is an environment where there'd been 300 easing
moves around the world. So, now Japan is joining something,
not an outlier -Uh-huh. -and the bank stocks for example
in just a few weeks have rallied 30%, you know,
bank stocks are an important, sort of lead horse in
economic futures and so, you have Japan doing better, you
have China doing better, you have housing doing better, and
United States and Europe, I guess, maybe the tail on
the downside has been cut off, such a pretty interesting
package. -Definitely is, so Japan. Talk to us about the
investment opportunities in Japan and you are overweighting Japan in
the global allocation fund. -Very much so, one might think
of Japan as the land of false dawns and indeed
there have been ever so many of them in the
past 23 years. It's really been a 23-year bear market
-Right -in Japanese stocks from of yet an extremely high
starting point and it's led to an enormous amount of
skepticism, so many people have been wronged so many times
about Japan that they're come to believe they're gonna be
wrong again. We think that in fact it's very possible
that we're seeing a title change in the economic situation
in Japan with respect to the stock market. Ed referred
to the election. The election was a landslide in favor
of Shinz? Abe and the LDP and they very much
run on a platform of reflation, getting out of deflation,
getting into inflation and weakening the Yen. Japan really has
not moved to weaken the Yen before this and we
think that is going to be a very powerful stimulant
to the Japanese economy, to Japanese corporate profits, and to
the Japanese stock market. There are an enormous number of
skeptics about the Japanese stock market. There are an enormous
number of skeptics about the Japanese stock market, and there
is a ton of money on the sidelines that could
come in to Japanese stocks. -From overseas or-- -From overseas,
from Japanese individuals, from pension funds, from government pension funds,
from corporate pension funds. If you look at their exposure
to Japanese equities on average of the government pension funds
and the corporate pension funds have less than 20% of
their assets exposed to the Japanese stock market, in fact
between 12 and 16%. If you compare that to other
countries, it's really miniscule. -Right. -People don't understand how powerful
money coming in to the Japanese stock market can be.
They don't understand how a liquid it has become. Japan
is the world's third largest economy and second biggest stock
market, but we took a look at the illiquidity in
Japanese stocks, unbelievable. The 100 largest stocks in Japan in
terms of trading volume taken together, average less volume in
1 day than Apple computer. -The top 100-- -The top
100, so when money comes into the Japanese stock market,
it has the potential to move it a great deal.
So, we're very bullish on the Japanese stock market. We're
bearish on the yen. And we're bearish on the Japanese
bond market.
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