The S&P 500 Index is now trading near its fair value, with limited further upside after its 19% climb so far this year, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
"The path forward for index ROE is likely to be challenging, although lower interest rates and lower tax rates may provide support," Goldman strategists including David Kostin wrote in a note to clients, referring to return on equity. Negative revisions to 2020 earnings-per-share forecasts and "policy uncertainty" will limit upside potential, they wrote.
Benchmark American equity gauges reached record highs this month as investors bet that Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts will ensure the economy avoids a major downturn. Traders are fully pricing in a quarter-point cut at the July 30-31 Federal Open Market Committee meeting.
"The S&P 500 index trades near fair value relative to interest rates," the Goldman strategists wrote. It's also appropriate relative to profitability and historical price-to-book valuations, they added.