No rate cut in January, Goldman Sachs says

But the bank's economists still expect a 25-point cut this week.

DEC 16, 2024

By Bloomberg

by Alice Gledhill

The Federal Reserve is likely to signal a slower future pace of easing when it meets later this week and then skip cutting interest rates in January, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists.

While the US bank sees policymakers still delivering a 25 basis-point reduction on Wednesday, recent comments imply there is a “clear” desire to temper the pace of cuts, wrote economists including Jan Hatzius in a note published Sunday. That’s because unemployment is set to undershoot the Fed’s projections for 2024 and inflation remains above target, they said.

“The key question for the statement and press conference is the relative emphasis put on slowing the pace versus on decisions remaining meeting-by-meeting and data-dependent,” they wrote. “We expect to hear both messages, including an addition to the statement that nods toward a slower pace.”

The Goldman view is moving in line with market pricing, which sees a 90% chance of a cut this week but has already largely factored out the likelihood of another such move in January. Goldman continues to expect cuts in March, June, and September next year, and a slightly higher terminal rate of 3.5%-3.75%.

“Both our baseline and probability-weighted Fed forecasts remain somewhat more dovish than market pricing,” the economists wrote. “One key reason is that we see the risks to interest rates from potential policy changes under the second Trump administration as more two-sided than is often assumed.”