Active exchange-traded funds could roughly quintuple in size to about $10 trillion by 2033 if current adoption and market conditions hold.
That's according to the latest projections from Brown Brothers Harriman’s 2026 Global ETF Investor Survey, which also suggest US investors are poised to be a major driver of that growth.
The survey draws from a poll of investors including institutions, RIAs, fund managers, private banks, and wealth managers, with 51% of respondents in the pool managing more than $1 billion in assets.
The report models a “base case” in which active ETFs compound at about 20% annually, taking the segment from just under $2 trillion in assets at the end of 2025 to around $10 trillion by the middle of the next decade. Most survey respondents think that kind of expansion is plausible: Ninety-four percent said active ETFs will reach $10 trillion within 10 years, with 42% expecting the milestone in seven years or less.
A separate survey by PwC this month projects global ETF assets will hit $35 trillion by 2030, more than doubling from $19.5 trillion in 2025.
Behind BBH's forecasts is a shift in how institutions, private banks, RIAs, and wealth managers are choosing to implement active bets. Two-thirds of global respondents said active management will be the most attractive approach over the next 12 months, versus 34% who favor passive.
In the US, that preference is showing up directly in ETF allocation plans. Among investors who expect to boost active ETF usage, 66% of US respondents plan to add to active equity ETFs, compared with 58% across all regions. Another 54% in the US intend to increase active fixed income ETF exposure, and 52% say they will put more money into active defined outcome strategies.
On a side note, the survey found 26% of global respondents intending to invest in defined outcome ETFs in the next 12 months, while in the US, that percentage rises to 37%.
Deirdre McIlvenna, a partner at Maples Group, said investor interest is rising as more managers bring active strategies into the ETF wrapper. She said the ability to package active exposure in ETFs, with their liquidity and transparency, reflects “the broader trend of growing investor demand for ETF structures.”
The BBH survey suggests much of that money will come out of mutual funds rather than from passive ETFs. Nearly half of respondents globally said they expect to cut positions in index mutual funds as they increase active ETF exposure, while 46% anticipate trimming actively managed mutual funds.
Regulatory developments in the US may reinforce the migration. After the Securities and Exchange Commission moved to allow mutual funds to introduce ETF share classes last year, 86% of US respondents said they would buy an ETF share class of a mutual fund.
The BBH survey also shows investors experimenting with the ETF structure at the edges of the public markets. Nearly all respondents globally said they would consider owning private assets in an ETF, and US investors were especially open to private equity and private credit: 54% would consider a private equity ETF and 51% would consider private credit.
Joanna Gallegos, co-founder of BondBloxx, said that private credit ETFs are giving investors a way into a segment that “has historically only been accessible to institutions and high net worth individuals.” She said the structure offers ETF-style benefits of “transparency, liquidity, and cost efficiency.”
"While more liquid ‘evergreen’ products and other variants are available, the packaging of private markets into an ETF can still present some unique opportunities and challenges," the report said.
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