Goldman upgrades year-end gold target to $3,100

by Sybilla Gross

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. raised its year-end gold target to $3,100 an ounce on central-bank buying and inflows into bullion-backed exchange-traded funds, highlighting Wall Street’s enthusiasm for the metal.

Central-bank demand may average 50 tons a month, more than previously expected, analysts Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven said in a note. Should uncertainty over economic policy persist, including on tariffs, bullion could hit $3,300 an ounce on higher speculative positioning, they said. The latter figure implies an annual gain of 26%, according to Bloomberg calculations.

The precious metal has roared higher this year, setting successive records in a seven-week winning run that’s built on last year’s surge. The commodity’s sustained advance has been driven by increased purchases by central banks, a streak of rate cuts from the Fed and, more recently, mounting investor concern over US President Donald Trump’s disruptive tariff announcements.

“‘We reiterate our ‘Go for Gold’ trading recommendation,” Thomas and Struyven wrote. “We see significant hedging value in long gold positions because of a potential increase in trade tensions.” 

In addition, inflation fears and fiscal risks “may push central banks — especially those holding large US Treasury reserves — to buy more gold,” they said.

The more bullish outlook — which came after Goldman pushed back a year-end $3,000 forecast last month — followed official-sector purchases estimated at 108 tons in December, according to the analysts. Elsewhere, there’ll be a “gradual boost” to ETF holdings on two expected Fed cuts, they said.

The revised forecast sits alongside a host of other bullish predictions from leading banks. Among them, Citigroup Inc. said earlier in February that it expects prices to hit $3,000 an ounce within three months, with geopolitical tensions and trade wars stoked by Trump boosting demand for haven assets.

Central-bank accumulation has been a major theme in the global bullion market over recent quarters. In Asia, the People’s Bank of China expanded its holdings for a third straight month in January. Other official buyers have included Poland and India, according to the World Gold Council.

Holdings in bullion-backed ETFs have been expanding too, although the total figure remains far below the peak hit in 2020, during the pandemic. So far in 2025, such funds have climbed by about 1%, according to a Bloomberg tally.

Spot gold was trading near $2,912 an ounce, after setting a record above $2,942 last week. Prices have surged by about 45% over the past 12 months, outpacing the 18% gain registered by a gauge of global stocks.

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