Home equity soars to a record $18T but cracks remain in the US housing market

The US housing market is sending contradictory signals according to several data releases this week.

Homeowner equity has never been higher, but the pool of active buyers has never been smaller, mortgage rates are at a one-year peak, and renting families are under mounting financial stress; suggesting a market in tension, where accumulated wealth sits largely locked up, affordability erodes from both sides, and would-be buyers are stepping away faster than sellers.

Recent data shows that homeowners are leaning more heavily on their housing wealth, with home equity withdrawals climbing to their highest first-quarter level in five years as elevated mortgage rates continue to reshape borrowing behavior.

Buyer pool shrinks to a record low

The number of active homebuyers in the United States fell to its lowest level on record in July according to a Redfin report. Approximately 966,752 buyers were active in the market last month (down 2.5% from June) while roughly 1,462,921 sellers remained listed, meaning there were an estimated 51.3% more sellers than buyers.

That gap is approaching the December 2025 peak of 51.8%, and it has pushed 39 of 49 major US metros into buyer's market territory. The most lopsided conditions are in Miami, where there are 154% more sellers than buyers, followed by Nashville at 151% and Houston at 130%.

"Buyers are dropping out faster than sellers, giving remaining buyers more options," said Asad Khan, senior economist at Redfin. Khan attributed the pullback to high housing costs and broader economic uncertainty, compounded by mortgage rates that climbed to their highest point in a year during July.

Affordability headwinds remain severe as the 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 6.69% for the week ending August 9, translating to a median monthly mortgage payment of $2,626 on the typical US home, up 1.7% year-over-year, Redfin's weekly housing tracker reveals.

Early signs of market activity, but sales remain subdued

Despite the buyer retreat, Redfin's weekly data showed faint signs of movement with pending home sales up 0.4% week-over-week for the four weeks ending August 9 (seasonally adjusted), though they remained 1.6% below the same period in 2025. New listings rose 1.7% week-over-week (the largest weekly gain in five months) and mortgage purchase applications climbed 3% week-over-week.

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The median US home sale price stood at $403,706, a 2.2% year-over-year increase, while the median asking price was $397,008, up 1.2%.

Homeowner equity reaches a record $18 trillion

Meanwhile, Intercontinental Exchange's (ICE) August 2026 Mortgage Monitor shows that US mortgage holders collectively hold $18 trillion in home equity, marking an all-time high.

Of that, $11.7 trillion is classified as "tappable equity," spread across 47.5 million borrowers, equating to an average of approximately $212,000 per borrower available to access through refinancing or home equity products.

Annual home price growth reached 1.5% in July 2026, marking a 14-month high and the fifth consecutive month of acceleration, driven in part by the spring selling season.

"The spring market provided a meaningful boost to prices and equity," said Andy Walden, head of mortgage and housing market research at ICE. He cautioned, however, that "rates have trended higher since early in the year, which may soften further acceleration."

The equity picture is not uniformly positive. ICE data shows approximately 813,000 borrowers are now underwater on their mortgages, a 44% increase year-over-year. Negative equity is concentrated among Federal Housing Administration (FHA) and Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) loan holders, borrowers who purchased between 2022 and 2025 at elevated prices, and homeowners in Texas and Florida.

ICE also flagged meaningful rate variation among borrowers: conforming purchase mortgage borrowers show an average 38-basis-point spread in the interest rates they receive, translating to roughly $76 per month on a $300,000 mortgage. For government-backed loans, that spread widens to 47–48 basis points — a reminder that rate shopping carries material financial value.

What rising rents mean for housing demand

For clients who are not yet homeowners, the alternative is increasingly expensive. A Zillow and StreetEasy analysis published this week found that 54.1% of renter families with children are rent-burdened, meaning they spend more than 30% of household income on rent, compared with 49.7% of all US renters. Families with children are disproportionately exposed.

In Miami, 67% of renter families are rent-burdened; the median two-bedroom rent there runs $31,200 a year against a median family household income of $100,000. In New York City, where 66.7% of family households rent (the highest share in the country) the median two-bedroom rent of $57,000 per year outpaces the median family income of approximately $89,000.

The underlying cause, according to the Zillow research, is a national housing deficit of 4.7 million units.

"At its heart, our affordability crisis is a supply crisis," said Kenny Lee, senior economist at Zillow and StreetEasy.

This situation constrains the ability of renters to save for a down payment, reducing future buyer demand; and it signals that housing costs will remain a structural drag on household balance sheets for the foreseeable future.

Overall, this week's data describes a US housing market divided along lines of ownership with existing homeowners sitting on record wealth, but that equity is largely illiquid in an environment where trading up means taking on a higher-rate mortgage.

Prospective buyers are pulling back in the face of a one-year rate high and prices that remain elevated. And renters, particularly those with families, face costs that make homeownership an increasingly distant goal.