As we edge closer to the Fed’s next interest rate decision with rising expectation that there could be a long-awaited cut, it can’t come soon enough for the US housing market.
With mortgage rates elevated and economic uncertainty remaining, buying a significant new asset, or selling an existing one might not feel comfortable for many. But what’s the current state of the market for homeowners, would-be buyers, and real estate investors?
InvestmentNews has been checking out some of the latest reports on the US housing market, revealing a mixed picture.
Firstly, sales. The National Association of Realtors released data last week showing that existing home sales were up 2% in July compared to the previous month and were up 0.8% year-over-year. Month-over-month sales increased in the Northeast, South, and West, and fell in the Midwest. Year-over-year, sales rose in the South, Northeast, and Midwest, and fell in the West.
"The ever-so-slight improvement in housing affordability is inching up home sales," says NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun. "Wage growth is now comfortably outpacing home price growth, and buyers have more choices. Condominium sales increased in the South region, where prices had been falling for the past year."
Meanwhile, the NAR’s data shows that the median existing-home price for all housing types was up 0.2% from one year ago to $422,400, marking the 25th consecutive month of year-over-year price increases.
The slower rate of price appreciation is also highlighted in the newly released S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Index which rose 1.9% year over year in June, continuing its deceleration from 6.5% at the start of 2024. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the index rose just 0.1% month over month in June.
"Home price growth slowed down in June to 1.9% annually, but the market is sharply bifurcated by geography," explains Cotality Principal Economist Thom Malone. "The Northeast and Midwest are posting robust annual price gains like 7% in New York City and 6.1% in Chicago. Meanwhile, Sun Belt and Western metros, including Tampa, Dallas, San Francisco, and Denver, are seeing price declines. Affordability remains strongest in the Midwest, where lower prices offer buyers a foothold. In the South and the West, a hangover from pandemic-era appreciation remains, and rising insurance premiums are contributing to price declines in those regions."
American homeowners collectively hold a staggering $34.5 trillion in home equity, as of the first quarter of 2025, a $600 billion gain over the past year, according to a new report from LendingTree.
But with price gains subdued, or even declining, the NAR’s Yun says that now could be a good time to buy.
"Homebuyers are in the best position in more than five years to find the right home and negotiate for a better price. Current inventory is at its highest since May 2020, during the COVID lockdown."
While the data shows some challenging conditions for homebuyers, for owners the cost of living does seem to be leading to a significant spike in difficulties making mortgage payments.
ICE Mortgage Technology’s latest report on mortgage delinquency, foreclosure and prepayment trends shows little to be concerned about.
“If you are looking for signs of a faltering economy, you won’t find them in July’s mortgage performance data,” says Andy Walden, head of mortgage and housing market research at ICE. “New delinquency inflows were down -13% from June and -5% from the same time last year, with the national delinquency rate improving on an annual basis for the second straight month, breaking what had been a 13-month streak of consecutive increases.”
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