Heading into the second half of 2017, we believe the elongated U.S. credit and business cycle – currently eight years old and counting – will continue through the end of the year. Yet for the first time in almost a decade, the risks to the global economy are centered in the U.S. and not in other major world economies.
Growth in much of the rest of the world is stable or accelerating. In Europe, a much-anticipated credit and earnings cycle is underway, while most emerging markets are recovering from their 2015-2016 slowdowns and recessions. In our view, the biggest threat to the global economy is the prospect of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) further tightening U.S. monetary policy.
Against this backdrop, we believe:
Market cycles ultimately end with tighter monetary policy and the yield curve inverting. We believe this time will be no different.
Download the full paper to glean further insights into our mid-year outlook.
More From OppenheimerFunds:
Mutual funds are subject to market risk and volatility. Shares may gain or lose value. Foreign investments may be volatile and involve additional expenses and special risks, including currency fluctuations, foreign taxes, regulatory and geopolitical risks.
These views represent the opinions of OppenheimerFunds, Inc. and are not intended as investment advice or to predict or depict the performance of any investment. These views are as of the publication date, and are subject to change based on subsequent developments.
Carefully consider fund investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Visit oppenheimerfunds.com or call your advisor for a prospectus with this and other fund information. Read it carefully before investing.
OppenheimerFunds is not affiliated with Investment News.
&Copy;2017 OppenheimerFunds Distributor, Inc.
From outstanding individuals to innovative organizations, find out who made the final shortlist for top honors at the IN awards, now in its second year.
Cresset's Susie Cranston is expecting an economic recession, but says her $65 billion RIA sees "great opportunity" to keep investing in a down market.
“There’s a big pull to alternative investments right now because of volatility of the stock market,” Kevin Gannon, CEO of Robert A. Stanger & Co., said.
Sellers shift focus: It's not about succession anymore.
Platform being adopted by independent-minded advisors who see insurance as a core pillar of their business.
RIAs face rising regulatory pressure in 2025. Forward-looking firms are responding with embedded technology, not more paperwork.
As inheritances are set to reshape client portfolios and next-gen heirs demand digital-first experiences, firms are retooling their wealth tech stacks and succession models in real time.