Advisors expect healthy gains – but not smooth sailing – for stocks in 2026

Financial advisors are bracing for a volatile climb in US equities next year, even as most expect the S&P 500 to finish 2026 higher.

In a fall survey of 856 advisors, 60% said the index will be up 10% or more by year-end 2026 from levels seen during the survey window of November 5 to 12, when the index traded between 6,720.32 and 6,850.92. One-fifth (18%) foresee a decline of at least 10%, and slighly more (22%) expect a flat outcome. .

Advisors also anticipate turbulence along the way. Nine in 10 expect at least a 10% pullback at some point in 2026, including 34% who see a 15% drawdown and 23% who expect a 20% decline. Reflecting that outlook, 81% said they will probably or definitely add more protection strategies to client portfolios next year.

“Advisors are cautiously optimistic about market returns in 2026, but expect a high degree of market volatility,” said Chris Mee, managing director at InspereX. He added that if markets chop sideways, advisors will have to keep clients “calm and invested throughout the year.”

Equities are widely expected to lead performance in 2026, with 54% of respondents pulling for stocks as the top-gaining asset class, followed by 12% who expected bonds to lead the pack and another 10% who bet on alternatives.

With the recent selloffs in crypto still fresh on their minds, 48% of advisors made the safe call of cryptocurrencies as the most volatile asset class, ahead of equities (31%) and commodities (6%).

Rates are another swing factor. Two-thirds of advisors expect two to three Federal Reserve rate cuts next year, while 21% anticipate one cut and 8% see policy staying neutral. A small minority expect four or more cuts (3%) or at least one hike (2%).

In anticipation of declining rates, 81% said they have either started or are preparing to discuss selectively extending risk in portfolios to reach return targets. Target return expecations are also moderately tempered around mid-single digits to high-single digits, with half of respondents targeting 6% to 8%, 36% aiming for more than 8%, and 9% seeking to match or beat the S&P 500's anticipated 10% gain in the next year. 

Looking at the looming headwinds, a third of advisors in the survey pointed to geopolitics as their biggest worry, while 20% pointed to market volatility – which 75% said also creates opportunities to show value – and 17% had their eye on recession risks. The rankings were slightly different for client concerns, where market volatility emerged as the most pressing issue (named by 29% of advisors) followed by geopolotics (25%) and inflation (17%). 

“Advisors continue to demonstrate a keen understanding of their clients, their needs and the potential risks to markets and their overall success,” Mee said, highlighting how "better tools, technology, and access to emerging asset classes" have equipped advisors to help keep clients on track.