Bob Doll’s predictions for 2024: A year of risk and ‘landing the plane’

One of the good things about turning the page on 2023 was the all-clear on a possible recession. Entering 2024, however, it seems that all bets are off.

Bob Doll, chief investment officer at Crossmark Global Investments, has released his annual predictions. Looking ahead to the new year, Doll said that the risks are “more symmetric: the risk of inflation remaining sticky and above target, and the risk of weaker economic activity exists as well.”

In his outlook for this year, Doll added that the consensus view of 2024 is a “Goldilocks” environment, one that isn’t too hot or too cold.

“The key economic question for 2024 is whether central banks can continue the 'landing of the plane' (soft landing) without a crash (recession),” he wrote.

Here are Doll’s 2024 predictions:

1. The economy: “The U.S. economy experiences a mild recession as the unemployment rate rises above 4.5%.” Doll also predicted this last year.
2. Inflation: “The 2%-3% inflation ceiling of the 2010s becomes the 2%-3% inflation floor of the 2020s.”
3. Federal Reserve easing: “The Fed cuts rates fewer than the six times suggested by the Fed funds futures curve.”
4. Fixed income: “Credit spreads widen as interest rates decline.”
5. Earnings: “Earnings growth falls short of the double-digit percentage consensus expectation.”
6. Equities: “Stocks record a new all-time high early in the year, but then experience a fade.”
7. Stock sectors: “Energy, financials and consumer staples outperform utilities, healthcare and real estate.” Similar to prediction No. 1, Doll also forecast this for 2023.
8. Faith-based investing: “Faith-based share of industry AUM rises for the eighth year in a row.”
9. Geopolitics: “Geopolitical crosscurrents multiply but have little impact on markets.”
10. The 2024 election: “The White House, Senate and House all switch parties in November.”