Jim Rogers expects next bear market to be the worst he's seen

Veteran investor cites the level of debt that has accumulated since the financial crisis, especially in the U.S.
FEB 09, 2018
By  Bloomberg

Jim Rogers, 75, says the next bear market in stocks will be more catastrophic than any other market downturn that he's lived through. The veteran investor says that's because even more debt has accumulated in the global economy since the financial crisis, especially in the U.S. While Mr. Rogers isn't saying that stocks are poised to enter bear territory now — or making any claim to know when they will — he says he's not surprised that U.S. equities resumed their sell-off Thursday and he expects the rout to continue. "When we have a bear market again, and we are going to have a bear market again, it will be the worst in our lifetime," Mr. Rogers, the chairman of Rogers Holdings Inc., said in a phone interview. "Debt is everywhere, and it's much, much higher now." The plunge in equity markets resumed Thursday, as the S&P 500 Index sank 3.8 percent, taking its rout since a Jan. 26 record past 10 percent and meeting the accepted definition of a correction. The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged more than 1,000 points, while the losses continued in early Asian trading Friday as the Nikkei 225 Stock Average dropped as much as 3.5%. Mr. Rogers has seen severe bear markets before. Even this century, the Dow plunged more than 50% during the financial crisis, from a peak in October 2007 through a low in March 2009. It sank 38% from its high during the IT bubble in 2000 through a low in 2002. "Jim has been talking about severe corrections since I started in business over 30 years ago," said Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. President Mike Evans, a former Goldman Sachs banker. "So I'm sure he'll be right at some point." Mr. Rogers predicts that the stock market will experience jitters until the Federal Reserve increases borrowing costs. That, he says, will be the point when stocks go up again. He said he'll buy an agriculture index today, reiterating his view that prices of such commodities have been depressed for some time.

Latest News

No succession plan? No worries. Just practice in place
No succession plan? No worries. Just practice in place

While industry statistics pointing to a succession crisis can cause alarm, advisor-owners should be free to consider a middle path between staying solo and catching the surging wave of M&A.

Research highlights growing need for personalized retirement solutions as investors age
Research highlights growing need for personalized retirement solutions as investors age

New joint research by T. Rowe Price, MIT, and Stanford University finds more diverse asset allocations among older participants.

Advisor moves: RIA Farther hails Q2 recruiting record, Raymond James nabs $300M team from Edward Jones
Advisor moves: RIA Farther hails Q2 recruiting record, Raymond James nabs $300M team from Edward Jones

With its asset pipeline bursting past $13 billion, Farther is looking to build more momentum with three new managing directors.

Insured Retirement Institute urges Labor Department to retain annuity safe harbor
Insured Retirement Institute urges Labor Department to retain annuity safe harbor

A Department of Labor proposal to scrap a regulatory provision under ERISA could create uncertainty for fiduciaries, the trade association argues.

LPL Financial sticking to its guns with retaining 90% of Commonwealth's financial advisors
LPL Financial sticking to its guns with retaining 90% of Commonwealth's financial advisors

"We continue to feel confident about our ability to capture 90%," LPL CEO Rich Steinmeier told analysts during the firm's 2nd quarter earnings call.

SPONSORED How advisors can build for high-net-worth complexity

Orion's Tom Wilson on delivering coordinated, high-touch service in a world where returns alone no longer set you apart.

SPONSORED RILAs bring stability, growth during volatile markets

Barely a decade old, registered index-linked annuities have quickly surged in popularity, thanks to their unique blend of protection and growth potential—an appealing option for investors looking to chart a steadier course through today's choppy market waters, says Myles Lambert, Brighthouse Financial.