Oppenheimer predicts record for S&P 500 by year-end

The S&P 500 received its most bullish outlook yet from Oppenheimer Asset Management, which sees further upside for stocks as the Federal Reserve nears a pivot and the U.S. economy stays resilient.

Chief investment strategist John Stoltzfus raised his year-end price target on the index to 4,900 from 4,400, leaving room for a near 7% gain through the end of the year. That would exceed the gauge’s Jan. 2022 record and is the most bullish forecast among Wall Street strategists tracked by Bloomberg. 

The S&P 500 would end the year about 28% higher if Stoltzfus’s prediction materializes, which would be the best performance since 2019 — when U.S. stocks were tracking the same path as they are now, according to Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson.

“Our price target assumes that the resilience exhibited by the U.S. economy will continue along with a high level of sensitivity by the Federal Reserve in raising its benchmark rates further,” Stoltzfus wrote in a note. “The Fed’s rate cycle now appears to be closer to a pause or an end than it has been since March of 2022.”

Stoltzfus correctly predicted U.S. stocks would rally in October last year, when remained bullish on equities amid resilient economic fundamentals, though the S&P 500 ended 2022 slightly lower than his target for that year.

U.S. equities have soared this year as investors looked past the earnings recession, growing confident that the economy would avoid any serious slowdown while anticipating less hawkish monetary policy. Stoltzfus trimmed his earnings-per-share estimates to $220 from $230 but expects profits to recover late in 2023 and into 2024.

“A broadening of the rally across S&P 500 sectors suggests that the bull market that emerged from the October 2022 lows has legs to run higher into 2024,” he said.

Citigroup Inc. strategist Scott Chronert also raised his price target on the S&P 500 last week to 4,600 from 4,000 to reflect the increased probability of a soft landing.