Tax refunds seen boosting savings over spending as Americans tread cautiously

A majority of Americans are entering the 2026 tax season with restrained expectations, prioritising savings and debt reduction over discretionary spending, according to a new survey.

Despite projections that refunds could be 10% higher this year, potentially adding about $90bn in aggregate, more than half of taxpayers say they expect little to no financial windfall. About 54% anticipate breaking even on their taxes, dampening hopes for a seasonal consumer spending lift.

When refunds do materialise, households are largely planning to strengthen their financial footing rather than boost consumption, according to the Trustpilot survey.  Nearly 4 in 10 respondents said they intend to set aside the money for future needs, while 26% plan to use refunds to reduce outstanding liabilities such as credit card balances or loan payments. Only 11% expect to channel refunds into everyday spending.

More than 40% of Americans indicated they would struggle to pay an unexpected $1,000 tax bill in full, and another 32% said doing so would put pressure on their budgets.

Taxpayers are also showing a tendency to delay filing. Nearly half (47%) said they plan to submit returns closer to the deadline, compared with 24% who intend to file as soon as possible. A notable 22% indicated they may not file at all, while 7% expect to seek an extension.

Saving money in anticipation of a tax bill was the most commonly cited factor behind filing delays, followed by the time and effort involved in preparing returns.

Roughly 45% of respondents said they would only consider free filing options, while about 23% are willing to spend under $100 and another 23% would pay between $100 and $300. Only a small minority (8% combined) would consider paying more than $300 for tax preparation.

Confidence levels also remain mixed. While 51% reported being somewhat confident their returns are filed correctly and 34% said they are very confident, around 15% expressed limited or no confidence in the accuracy of their filings.

Although artificial intelligence tools continue gaining visibility in personal finance, many taxpayers remain hesitant to rely on them for high-stakes tax decisions. Nearly one-third (32%) said they would not use AI for tax-related guidance this year.

Among those open to using such tools, most see AI as a research aid rather than a filing solution. Around 22% would use AI to estimate refund amounts, 17% to identify deductions or credits, and 11% to help locate tax software or a preparer.