Timers take big leap into the stock market

Market timers are jumping in. Financial advisers who are members of the National Association of Active Investment Managers Inc. of Littleton, Colo., made a record leap into the stock market late last month. NAAIM surveys its members each Wednesday about their overall allocation to equities. On March 25, NAAIM members had a 47.8% exposure, on average, up from just 9.9% the prior week. That was the greatest one-week increase since the group began collecting data from its members in June 2006. "And it's the largest [stock] exposure in 10 months," said NAAIM president Will Hepburn, founder of Hepburn Capital Management LLC in Prescott, Ariz., which runs $20 million for clients. But with timers jumping in, is it time to jump out? No, Mr. Hepburn said. The NAAIM sentiment measure isn't a contrary indicator, though it has consistently lagged market direction. "We're not fortunetellers," Mr. Hepburn said, though he noted that NAAIM members did get more conservative last year as the markets headed down. After June 18, 2008, the NAAIM survey showed that its members were never more than 40% exposed to the stock market, he said.