A post-holiday Wall Street session saw Treasuries trimming losses after Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said rates could drop as soon as July. Stocks wavered as traders braced for a $6.5 trillion expiration of options, while keeping an eye on the latest developments in the Middle East.
The S&P 500 swung between gains and losses, with a quarterly episode known as “triple witching” in which derivatives contracts tied to stocks, index options and futures amplifying the potential for instability. Shorter-dated bonds outperformed, with two-year yields trading around 3.94%. Oil fell on a news report that Tehran is ready to discuss limitations on its uranium enrichment.
Concerns about an imminent US military involvement in the Middle East conflict eased as President Donald Trump held off on a decision on whether to strike Iran.
Meantime, Waller reiterated his view that the inflation hit from tariffs is likely to be short-lived. His comments on CNBC followed this week’s Fed decision to keep rates on hold for the fourth straight policy meeting. Officials signaled on Wednesday their expectation for two rate cuts before the end of 2025.
“The market is dealing with a lot presently, from geopolitical tensions, tariff uncertainty and questions about the Federal Reserve’s next move,” said Brian Buetel at UBS Wealth Management. “While there are different risks on the horizon, stocks are a forward looking barometer of economic growth, which we believe will hold up this year.”
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