Next month’s U.S. election could usher in a shift from growth stocks into value, regardless of the outcome, according to Citigroup Inc.
Every presidential vote in at least the last 40 years has sparked a potential rotation from one part of the market to another no matter who is elected, according to Citi’s head of U.S. equity trading strategy Alexander Altmann. This year, the contest could put value stocks in the limelight after growth shares have surged amid low interest rates and plunging bond yields.
“Value always performed pretty well in the six months after the election,” Altmann said at a Citi investment conference, adding that he has been backing value stocks since the end of May given the expected shift. “The magnitude of that performance did however vary depending on what kind of election outcome we got.”
Policy changes from new administrations brought on the biggest market reshuffles, he said. If Democrat Joe Biden wins and his party gains control of the Senate, “we should see a significant amount of rotation in the market,” Altmann added.
Altmann joins a number of market watchers who believe equities are mostly pointing to a Biden victory, but he cautioned that some have grown distrustful of polling in the wake of Brexit and the last U.S. presidential election.
Stocks could see a more exaggerated rotation post-election because skeptical investors are holding on to cash at the moment amid worries about a market-roiling outcome, he said.
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