Wall Street banks see recession risks flashing in the markets

Financial markets are signaling that the risk of a recession is growing as tariff-related uncertainty and indicators of economic weakness spread fear across Wall Street. 

A model from JPMorgan Chase & Co. shows that the market-implied probability of an economic downturn has climbed to 31% on Tuesday, from 17% at the end of November. Key indicators like five-year Treasuries and base metals are showing an even higher — toss-up — chance of a contraction. While it’s far from the base case, a similar model from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. also suggests recession risk is edging up, at 23% from 14% in January. 

After a wild ride in markets Tuesday, economic sentiment is darkening as money managers and corporate executives struggle to cope with the volatility created by President Donald Trump’s threatened tariffs. Trump defended his plan to remake the global trading order in his address to Congress Tuesday night, acknowledging the prospect of discomfort ahead.

“With softer economic activity data in the US and already weaker business and consumer confidence in recent weeks, the tariffs that came into effect on March 4th on Canada, Mexico and China are raising the risk of an even bigger hit to business and consumer confidence going forward,” said JPMorgan strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou. “In turn this raises the specter of a US recession and markets have naturally priced in higher probability.”

S&P 500 futures struggled to hold onto to gains in Wednesday trading, even after US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick hinted at tariff relief for Mexico and Canada. 

Data this week showed US factory activity last month edging closer to stagnation as orders and employment contracted. This came after reports showing consumer confidence hitting the lowest levels since 2021, personal spending unexpectedly decreasing, and disappointing prints about the American housing market. 

Mohamed A. El-Erian, the president of Queens’ College, Cambridge and a Bloomberg Opinion columnist, now sees a 25% to 30% chance of a recession, up from 10% at the beginning of the year. El-Erian is among a small but growing group of Wall Street worrywarts, focused on stubborn inflation pressures and the recent decline in consumer and business confidence. 

JPMorgan calculates the prospect of a recession by comparing the pre-recession peaks of various classes and their troughs during an economic contraction. By this metric, the prices of five-year Treasuries, base metals and small stocks now suggest a recession probability of about 50%. Still, the investment-grade credit market suggests the chance remains low at 8%, though that’s higher than effectively zero at the end of November. 

The Goldman model is based on multiple cross-asset indicators, including credit spreads and the Cboe Volatility Index. One metric, tracking expectations in the futures market on the Fed’s benchmark rate in 12 months time, suggests a 46% likelihood of an economic contraction. 

“The largest shifts have been in the pricing of Fed cuts and the yield curve, which tends to indicate latent recession risk,” said Christian Mueller-Glissmann, head of asset allocation research for Goldman Sachs said in an email. “There has also been a pick-up in the VIX, which tends to spike around recessions and is more of a coincident indicator.”

To be clear, financial markets have struggled to price in the direction of the business cycle since the disruption caused by the pandemic. Recession bets in markets misfired in 2023 after the US consumer proved more resilient than expected to monetary tightening. This time round, stagflation fears are rising amid signs of easing growth and elevated inflation. The latest survey of economists conducted by Bloomberg shows a 25% probability of a contraction in the next year. 

While US stocks have erased their gains for the year, there are plenty of bright spots in the investment and consumption cycle, not least the unemployment rate hovering around 4% and income metrics showing strength. Additionally, a lot of bad economic news has come from reports based on surveys, according to Cayla Seder, a macro multi-asset strategist at State Street Global Markets.

“It would be premature to extrapolate the soft data-weakness into meaning economic growth is rolling over, as of now,” said Seder. Still, “drivers of economic growth have become more concentrated, which means there are fewer drivers of economic growth,” she added.