Wealthy Americans are feeling optimistic as their investment portfolios gain

For wealthy Americans, having a well-performing investment portfolio is boosting their confidence in being able to spend and borrow more. But not everyone is feeling as optimistic.

Looking at metrics of confidence reveals a mixed picture of how US consumers and investors are feeling in the post-tariff era, although the latest escalation of tension in the Middle East will not yet be reflected.

Firstly, the Bain & Company/Dynata Consumer Health Indexes which, for better-off Americans – those earning more than $100K a year- jumped 10.5 percentage points this month, the highest single-month rise ever. This group’s sentiment tumbled after the tariff announcements but the index is now close to its 12-month average.

This cohort’s investment portfolio is the main reason cited for the improved outlook and their positive outlook and shows a greater willingness to spend and to increase their debt. Given that debt is often used strategically by this group – increasing in the good times, cutting back in the bad – this signals rising sentiment.

“The outlook for upper-income US earners is rebounding along with the market,” said Brian Stobie, senior director Bain & Company’s Macro Trends Group. “Upper-income Americans are telling us they intend to spend more, not less, and that they also plan to take on more debt. We view these trends as positive news for overall demand.”

However, the stats show that those Americans earning less than six figures are showing lower confidence. With the fall in the index erasing all the gains since last fall, it is now back at a 15-month low. These consumers are showing greater intention to save, an indicator of financial stress.  

“Lower income earners are indicating that something is shifting unfavorably for them, likely in the labor market,” added Stobie. “Yet, despite the deterioration in their outlook, spending intentions for this group are holding steady for now.”

Meanwhile, the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index for the US highlights the mixed data currently clouding the outlook for the economy. It was down 0.1% in May following a 1.4% drop in April. It has fallen by 2.7% in the six-month period ending May 2025, a much faster rate of decline than the 1.4% contraction over the previous six months.

Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board, said that the recovery of stock prices after the April drop was the main positive contributor to the index. 

“However, consumers' pessimism, persistently weak new orders in manufacturing, a second consecutive month of rising initial claims for unemployment insurance, and a decline in housing permits weighed on the Index, leading to May's overall decline,” she said. “With the substantial negatively revised drop in April and the further downtick in May, the six-month growth rate of the Index has become more negative, triggering the recession signal.”

While The Conference Board does not anticipate recession, a significant slowdown in economic growth in 2025 compared to 2024 is expected, with real GDP growing at 1.6% this year and persistent tariff effects potentially leading to further deceleration in 2026.