AI continues as core focus of thematic funds in 2026, says BlackRock

Artificial intelligence, geopolitical fragmentation, infrastructure expansion, and digital assets are the intersecting forces reshaping portfolio construction and opportunity sets in 2026.

Markets are increasingly driven by long-term structural themes rather than short-term cycles and BlackRock’s 2026 Thematic Outlook says that “Themes continue to drive markets as they converge in new and increasingly impactful ways.”

Thematic fund assets in the US have grown elevenfold over the past decade, and 2025 saw more than $68 billion in thematic ETF inflows, the strongest year since 2021, highlighting sustained investor appetite for targeted exposures aligned with transformational trends.

AI remains the dominant growth engine, but the narrative is shifting from user adoption to depth of usage.

As the report states, “We have yet to scratch the surface on much of AI’s potential, especially at the intersection of ‘compute and conflict’.” Token consumption — described as the fuel behind AI — is accelerating as models evolve beyond basic chat into reasoning, robotics, and autonomous systems. This surge in compute demand ties AI’s expansion directly to power infrastructure and national security priorities.

Defense spending emerges as a parallel and underrecognized theme. While AI-related construction represents roughly 1% of U.S. GDP, global military spending is substantially higher yet commands less investor focus.

The 2026 defense budget highlights rapid growth in space-based systems, computing, and intelligence capabilities. Defense technology is shifting toward digital, autonomous, and cyber platforms, opening new thematic investment pathways beyond traditional contractors.

Infrastructure is positioned as the bridge between economic ambition and physical capacity. Global infrastructure investment is projected to surpass $100 trillion by 2040 across transportation, energy, digital networks, and defense.

But power availability is a growing constraint as new transmission lines can take nearly a decade to complete, while data centers are built in under two years. This imbalance is directing development toward regions with stronger grid reliability and accelerating investment in grid upgrades.

Energy security underpins these transformations. The US is experiencing its largest natural gas pipeline expansion in nearly two decades, driven by rising LNG exports. Natural gas supplies one-third of US primary energy consumption and is priced far below European levels, reinforcing America’s role as both domestic energy stabilizer and global supplier.

Finally, the report points to evolving access points for investors. Private and public markets are beginning to blur, especially in capital-intensive AI ventures. At the same time, stablecoins and tokenized assets may extend blockchain use cases beyond speculative crypto trading into private credit and real assets.