BofA sees 'cracks' in foreign demand for Treasuries

BofA sees 'cracks' in foreign demand for Treasuries
Strategists say the "unusual" decline, coming at a time when the dollar is weak, is part of a broader concerning trend of investors lightening their US asset exposure.
JUN 16, 2025
By  Bloomberg

Central banks have been selling Treasuries since March, suggesting that they are diversifying away from dollar assets, according to Bank of America Corp.

Treasuries held by global central banks and other official entities in custody at the New York Federal Reserve fell $17 billion in the week through June 11 on average, extending their declines since late March to $48 billion. In addition, foreign holdings in the Fed’s reverse repurchase agreement facility have dropped roughly $15 billion since late March.

The decline is “unusual” because central banks typically buy Treasuries when the dollar is weak, as it has been this year, strategists led by Meghan Swiber wrote in a note Monday, with the title “Foreign UST demand shows cracks.”  

International appetite for Treasuries has been under increasing scrutiny in recent months. President Donald Trump’s trade and fiscal policies have roiled financial markets and fueled speculation that overseas buyers will shun US assets — the so-called Sell America trade. The Bloomberg Spot Dollar Index is down about 8% in 2025, and is near a three-year low in part on concern that the levies will sour the US economy’s prospects.

“This flow likely reflects official sector diversification away from USD holdings,” wrote the strategists, adding that they “remain worried about the outlook for foreign demand.” 

Overseas investors have been an important source of buying for Treasuries. In fact, almost all the demand for Treasuries in the first quarter came from broker-dealers and foreign investors, the strategists said, citing the Fed’s flow of funds data. 

That underscores “an alarming picture” because the dealers’ portion tends to reflect the gap between bond supply and demand from private investors, Swiber wrote. 

“The foreign demand trajectory going forward is concerning especially in light of more global investors looking to reduce US assets or increase hedge ratios,” she said.

The strategists also pointed to “a continued weakening” in foreign participation at the most recent 2- and 20-year auctions.

Latest News

Advisor headcount down at Bank of America, Osaic and UBS so far in 2025, Wolfe Research analyst says
Advisor headcount down at Bank of America, Osaic and UBS so far in 2025, Wolfe Research analyst says

Counting advisor moves in and out of firms requires some art as well as science.

Carson Group's M&A head sees '10-to-15 year bull market' for RIAs
Carson Group's M&A head sees '10-to-15 year bull market' for RIAs

“I'm just a big believer that based on demographics alone, we are looking at a 10-to-15 year bull market in M&A in the RIA and independent wealth space,” said Michael Belluomini, SVP of M&A at Carson Group.

Nationwide finds Medicare myth on long-term care could cost Americans dearly
Nationwide finds Medicare myth on long-term care could cost Americans dearly

As a tsunami of retirees comes crashing in, three-fifths of those surveyed believe – wrongly – that the federal safety net will cover their LTC needs.

Fintech bytes: Orion, Altruist unveil new RIA-focused integrations
Fintech bytes: Orion, Altruist unveil new RIA-focused integrations

Orion's latest update, a partnership with 11th.com, focuses on an underserved area of compliance for advisors and wealth firms.

Raymond James reels in advisors managing $1B+ in Colorado
Raymond James reels in advisors managing $1B+ in Colorado

The latest arrivals, including a 10-advisor ensemble from Ameriprise, bolster the firm's independent contractor and employee advisor channels.

SPONSORED RILAs bring stability, growth during volatile markets

Barely a decade old, registered index-linked annuities have quickly surged in popularity, thanks to their unique blend of protection and growth potential—an appealing option for investors looking to chart a steadier course through today's choppy market waters, says Myles Lambert, Brighthouse Financial.

SPONSORED Beyond the dashboard: Making wealth tech human

How intelliflo aims to solve advisors' top tech headaches—without sacrificing the personal touch clients crave