Treasuries fell, as the $29 trillion market heads toward its worst weekly loss since turmoil in the plumbing of the US financial system forced action from the Federal Reserve in 2019.
The slide extended Friday, lifting yields on benchmark 10-year notes as much as 10 basis points to the highest level since February, surpassing the previous tariff-induced peak. US government debt lost more than 2% this week as of Thursday’s close, the biggest drop since a liquidity crisis broke out in the market for repurchase agreements, or repos, in September 2019.
Bonds have been whipsawed as President Donald Trump announced sweeping global tariffs, then walked most of them back — eroding appetite for US assets and prompting questions about whether the nation’s debt remains a haven. This week’s selloff fueled speculation about blowups in hedge fund trades or a exodus of foreign investors from Treasuries.
“The issue facing the markets is a loss of confidence in US policy,” said Kathy Jones, chief fixed-income strategist at Charles Schwab. “The abrupt changes in tariff policy have caused leveraged trades to come undone and sent buyers to the sidelines.”
She pointed to a sharp drop in the dollar — which tumbled this week by the most since 2022 — as an indication that overseas investors are pulling back from US assets, likely embracing Europe for its relative stability. The selling in US bonds can go on for longer, Jones said.
Investors flocked to bunds to shelter from the broader turmoil, leaving German yields largely unchanged in the week, while the rate on US 10-year debt surged more than 40 basis points. That’s the biggest underperformance of Treasuries compared to bunds since at least 1989, according to available data.
The run of declines extended in the US on Friday, with seven- and 10-year yields climbing as much as 10 basis points. Those on the 30-year bond approached 4.96% after briefly soaring above 5% earlier this week for the first time since January. The longest yield has climbed about 50 basis points since last Friday.
Markets are pricing in the possibility that the Fed will deliver at least three quarter-point interest rate cuts by the end of the year, with the chance of a fourth.
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