Treasury yields rise as jobs report trims rate-cut expectations

A rough start to the year for bond traders just got worse as the release of key employment data showed a buoyant labor market with few of the stresses that could prompt the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates.

Treasury yields rose and traders pushed back when they foresee the Fed cutting rates for the first time in the wake of another hot reading on job creation. 

US job growth in March rose by the most in nearly a year and the unemployment rate dropped, pointing to a strong labor market that’s supporting the economy. Nonfarm payrolls advanced 303,000 — following a combined 22,000 upward revision to job gains in the prior two months. The unemployment rate fell to 3.8%.

US yields pushed near their highest levels of 2024, with the benchmark 10-year rate jumping eight basis points to about 4.39%, as the fresh dose of data doused hopes that the Fed will move to reduce rates soon. 

Treasury futures now show the first cut from the US central bank not coming until September, and reduced the probability it comes in June to only about 52%. For all of 2024, traders now see only about 67 basis points of rate reductions — lagging behind the three quarter-point cuts Fed officials have signaled.

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