The world’s biggest bond market climbed as the latest jobs report bolstered speculation the Federal Reserve will deploy a super-sized rate cut in September.
Treasury yields dropped across the US curve, with two-year yields falling seven basis points to 3.68%. Swap traders are now pricing in a 50% chance of a half point Fed reduction this month. Stocks fluctuated.
Nonfarm payrolls rose by 142,000 following downward revisions to the prior two months, Bureau of Labor Statistics data showed Friday. The unemployment rate edged down to 4.2%, the first decline in five months, reflecting a reversal in temporary layoffs. Average hourly earnings rose 0.4%.
“A softer-than-expected jobs report may support those in favor of a 50 basis-point rate cut in September, but the jury is likely still out,” said Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley. “For now, a 25 basis-point cut remains the baseline case for a cautious Fed. In the meantime, markets are likely to be sensitive to any other data that suggests the economy is cooling off too much.”
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