US yields retreat as jobs spark hopes for jumbo Fed cut

US yields retreat as jobs spark hopes for jumbo Fed cut
Softer-than-expected jobs report opens the door to a 50-basis-point adjustment, but the jury is still out on the cautious central bank's next move.
SEP 06, 2024

The world’s biggest bond market climbed as the latest jobs report bolstered speculation the Federal Reserve will deploy a super-sized rate cut in September.

Treasury yields dropped across the US curve, with two-year yields falling seven basis points to 3.68%. Swap traders are now pricing in a 50% chance of a half point Fed reduction this month. Stocks fluctuated.

Nonfarm payrolls rose by 142,000 following downward revisions to the prior two months, Bureau of Labor Statistics data showed Friday. The unemployment rate edged down to 4.2%, the first decline in five months, reflecting a reversal in temporary layoffs. Average hourly earnings rose 0.4%.

“A softer-than-expected jobs report may support those in favor of a 50 basis-point rate cut in September, but the jury is likely still out,” said Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley. “For now, a 25 basis-point cut remains the baseline case for a cautious Fed. In the meantime, markets are likely to be sensitive to any other data that suggests the economy is cooling off too much.”

Some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks

  • S&P 500 futures rose 0.1% as of 8:50 a.m. New York time
  • Nasdaq 100 futures were little changed
  • Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were little changed
  • The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.2%
  • The MSCI World Index rose 0.1%

Currencies

  • The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.3%
  • The euro rose 0.2% to $1.1134
  • The British pound rose 0.4% to $1.3229
  • The Japanese yen rose 0.5% to 142.76 per dollar

Cryptocurrencies

  • Bitcoin rose 1.2% to $56,722.24
  • Ether rose 1.5% to $2,403.22

Bonds

  • The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined three basis points to 3.70%
  • Germany’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to 2.18%
  • Britain’s 10-year yield declined four basis points to 3.87%

Commodities

  • West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.7% to $69.60 a barrel
  • Spot gold rose 0.4% to $2,527.08 an ounce

Latest News

Treasury unveils Trump Accounts fund lineup led by BlackRock, Vanguard, and State Street
Treasury unveils Trump Accounts fund lineup led by BlackRock, Vanguard, and State Street

Five low-cost index ETFs to anchor Trump Accounts as advisors weigh options against 529 and UTMA plans for clients

House panel unanimously advances advisor compensation reform bill
House panel unanimously advances advisor compensation reform bill

A bipartisan proposal aimed at aligning advisor compensation rules with modern business structures is headed to the full House.

Vanilla, WealthFeed land new RIA partnerships
Vanilla, WealthFeed land new RIA partnerships

Vanilla is extending its estate planning tech to Callan Family Office's ultra-high-net-worth business, while WealthFeed's organic growth engine will now be available to roughly 100 advisors at The Mather Group.

As Trump Accounts prep for July 4 launch, Franklin Templeton plans $1,000 match
As Trump Accounts prep for July 4 launch, Franklin Templeton plans $1,000 match

“We are helping families take an important first step toward building a financial foundation for the next generation,” said Franklin Templeton CEO Jenny Johnson

Savant Wealth Management enters Maine with latest acquisition
Savant Wealth Management enters Maine with latest acquisition

Richard Brothers Financial Advisors joins the fee-only RIA, adding its first Maine office and $240 million in client assets

SPONSORED Who builds the income when the pension disappears?

Dan Biagini of American Equity says the steady decline of pensions, longer lifespans and a reset in interest rates are rewriting how advisors build retirement income

SPONSORED Why direct indexing stopped being optional

Direct indexing is on pace to outgrow ETFs and mutual funds. Northern Trust's Ken Lassner explains why the advisors who get it wish they had started sooner.