Four score? How markets have fared on leap days

FEB 29, 2012
The following is an excerpt from the latest weekly market commentary of Jeffrey Saut, chief market strategist at Raymond James. To read the full commentary, click here. The call for this week: There have now been 37 trading sessions in 2012 and so far the S&P 500 has yet to experience a 1% Downside Day. This 37-session, or more, skein has occurred 11 other times in the past 84 years and has on every occasion except one seen the equity markets higher by the end of the year. Still, the rise since the "buying stampede" ended, which stopped on January 26, 2012 at Dow 12841.95, has felt unnatural to me. Surprisingly, the Industrials reside only 141 points above their intraday high of January 26th causing one market maven to exclaim, "no wonder I feel like we're in the Trading Twilight Zone." Maybe there will be a resolution to that "unnatural feeling" this week when we experience Leap Day (February 29th). As our friends at Bespoke write, "There have been 21 leap days in which the market was open since 1900. . . . The average performance of the Dow on leap days has been -0.05% with a median return of -0.22%. . . . There have been three leap days that fell on a Wednesday (as it does this year) since 1900, and the index has risen once and fallen twice. The last leap day was February 29, 2008, and that day the Dow had a big fall of 2.51%." I'll speak to you next week.

Latest News

The 2025 InvestmentNews Awards Excellence Awardees revealed
The 2025 InvestmentNews Awards Excellence Awardees revealed

From outstanding individuals to innovative organizations, find out who made the final shortlist for top honors at the IN awards, now in its second year.

Top RIA Cresset warns of 'inevitable' recession amid tariff uncertainty
Top RIA Cresset warns of 'inevitable' recession amid tariff uncertainty

Cresset's Susie Cranston is expecting an economic recession, but says her $65 billion RIA sees "great opportunity" to keep investing in a down market.

Edward Jones joins the crowd to sell more alternative investments
Edward Jones joins the crowd to sell more alternative investments

“There’s a big pull to alternative investments right now because of volatility of the stock market,” Kevin Gannon, CEO of Robert A. Stanger & Co., said.

Record RIA M&A activity marks strong start to 2025
Record RIA M&A activity marks strong start to 2025

Sellers shift focus: It's not about succession anymore.

IB+ Data Hub offers strategic edge for U.S. wealth advisors and RIAs advising business clients
IB+ Data Hub offers strategic edge for U.S. wealth advisors and RIAs advising business clients

Platform being adopted by independent-minded advisors who see insurance as a core pillar of their business.

SPONSORED Compliance in real time: Technology's expanding role in RIA oversight

RIAs face rising regulatory pressure in 2025. Forward-looking firms are responding with embedded technology, not more paperwork.

SPONSORED Advisory firms confront crossroads amid historic wealth transfer

As inheritances are set to reshape client portfolios and next-gen heirs demand digital-first experiences, firms are retooling their wealth tech stacks and succession models in real time.