Wall Street is beginning to sour on the outlook for crude next year, with Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley lowering price forecasts as global supplies increase, including potentially from OPEC+.
The two banks now foresee global benchmark Brent averaging less than $80 a barrel in 2025, with Goldman’s revised forecast cut to $77, while Morgan Stanley sees futures ranging from $75 to $78. Both expect that the crude market will be in surplus, with prices trending lower over the 12 months.
A decision by OPEC+ to reverse voluntary supply cuts may mean that the cartel is aiming at “strategically disciplining non-OPEC supply,” Goldman analysts including Daan Struyven said in a note, while warning that crude prices could undershoot its revised forecasts in a number of scenarios.
Oil has fallen in recent months — temporarily losing all year-to-date gains — as investors fretted about slowing demand growth in China, rising supplies from outside OPEC+, as well as the group’s plans to relax output curbs. While the cartel has been willing to sacrifice market share by withholding barrels to support prices, the tentative plan to restore output may alter that stance.
“Crude oil markets remain in deficit, but are likely as tight as they will be for some time,” Morgan Stanley analysts including Martijn Rats and Charlotte Firkins said in a report. By the fourth quarter of 2024, “the balance will likely return to equilibrium, and we estimate a surplus in 2025,” they said.
Brent crude last traded at about $81 a barrel, and has averaged around $83 so far this year. Among Goldman’s scenarios, it said Brent could fall to $60 if Chinese oil demand were to stay flat; $63 if the US imposed an across-the-board tariff of 10% on goods imports; and $61 if OPEC fully reversed its 2.2 million barrels a day of extra cuts through September 2025.
Goldman’s analysis also looked at the potential impact on US shale crude producers should the cartel add supply, or if the world’s largest economy contracted. “Prices could significantly undershoot in the short term, especially if OPEC were to strategically discourage US shale growth more forcefully, or if a recession were to reduce oil demand,” it said.
"This shouldn’t be hard to ban, but neither party will do it. So offensive to the people they serve," RIA titan Peter Mallouk said in a post that referenced Nancy Pelosi's reported stock gains.
Elsewhere, Sanctuary Wealth recently attracted a $225 million team from Edward Jones in Colorado.
The giant hybrid RIA is elevating its appeal to advisors with a curated suite of alternative investment models, offering exposure to private equity, private credit, and real estate.
The $40 billion RIA firm's latest West Coast deal brings a veteran with over 25 years of experience to its legacy division for succession-focused advisors.
Invictus fund managers allegedly kept $10 million in plan assets after removal, setting off a legal fight that raises red flags for wealth firms.
Orion's Tom Wilson on delivering coordinated, high-touch service in a world where returns alone no longer set you apart.
Barely a decade old, registered index-linked annuities have quickly surged in popularity, thanks to their unique blend of protection and growth potential—an appealing option for investors looking to chart a steadier course through today's choppy market waters, says Myles Lambert, Brighthouse Financial.
