Goldman sees potential rotation to low-profit stocks if jobs gain

Goldman sees potential rotation to low-profit stocks if jobs gain
A strong labor market report could see investors pivot.
SEP 30, 2024

A solid US jobs report at the end of the week could spur a rotation from the market’s most profitable names into stocks with weaker earnings, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists.

A strong Labor Department jobs print on Friday could prompt some investors to “price lower odds of substantial labor market weakening,” leading them to “rotate out of expensive ‘quality’ stocks into less-loved lower quality firms,” the team led by David Kostin wrote.

US equities have returned to record highs as investors bet the economy can avoid a recession, supported by looser monetary policy. The nonfarm payrolls report is the main focus for markets this week, and is expected to show a healthy, yet moderating, labor market.

Bloomberg’s factors-to-watch analysis shows that a so-called quality strategy, that sees investors target the most profitable equity names, has been among the top five best-performers in the US this year. 

Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson also flagged recently that the labor market will be a bigger driver of stocks than the outlook for interest rates. In a note on Sunday, the strategist reiterated his preference for large-cap stocks and higher-quality sectors.

Latest News

Goldman leads wave of prediction market bans at financial firms
Goldman leads wave of prediction market bans at financial firms

As Goldman Sachs tightens rules on event contract trading, RIAs and hedge funds are weighing their own policies

Advisor moves: Baird recruits $600M veteran pair to director roles in North Carolina
Advisor moves: Baird recruits $600M veteran pair to director roles in North Carolina

Meanwhile, Wells Fargo lures defectors from UBS and JPMorgan to expand in the East Coast, while another bank aligns itself with RayJay's financial institutions division.

AI may be nudging some older workers into early retirement, study finds
AI may be nudging some older workers into early retirement, study finds

New research suggests AI-exposed workers over 55 are leaving jobs more often than before ChatGPT’s rise.

Wall Street banks promoting AI agents from research aids into digital coworkers
Wall Street banks promoting AI agents from research aids into digital coworkers

Agentic AI is landing in trading, treasury and wealth management roles across major banks, with advisory functions as the next frontier.

People moves: FiNet hires former LPL executive Andrew Harpp, Ellevest names new CIO
People moves: FiNet hires former LPL executive Andrew Harpp, Ellevest names new CIO

Wells Fargo affiliate and women-focused wealth firm both promote leadership as they scale advisor support.

SPONSORED Direct indexing webinar targets tax-loss harvesting amid market swings

Northern Trust’s Ken Lassner shows advisors how to convert volatility into after-tax portfolio gains

SPONSORED Who builds the income when the pension disappears?

Dan Biagini of American Equity says the steady decline of pensions, longer lifespans and a reset in interest rates are rewriting how advisors build retirement income