While there's been no shortage of opinion surveys showing a neck-and-neck race for the Oval Office between Vice President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump, there's at least one platform where people appear to be putting their money on the Republican candidate to prevail.
In a data snapshot taken on November 5 at 8:20 AM Eastern time, Interactive Brokers reported that the odds for a Trump victory on its ForecastTrader prediction markets stood at 59 percent, versus a 40 percent chance of a loss priced in.
Meanwhile, bettors had pegged the chances of a victory for Harris at 43 percent, in contrast to a 57 percent chance of a loss.
The odds don't match exactly to add up to 100 percent because of how Interactive Brokers' betting platform works. Through its ForecastEx exchange, the platform allows traders to express their convictions on various political outcomes, economic data releases and climate indicators. With respect to the presidential candidates, investors are able to hold yes contracts on both at the same time, or hold no contracts on them simultaneously.
The Harris and Trump contracts are part of a broader suite of Forecast Contracts Interactive Brokers unveiled in early October, ostensibly to help investors hedge against political volatility. Apart from the Harris-Trump matchup, it opened the door for traders to position themselves for Democratic or Republican majorities, whether in Congress or the Senate, as well as the outcome on several hotly contested Senate seats.
Late last month, Robinhood unveiled its own Harris and Trump event trading products, which came hot on the heels of its launching futures trading and index options for active traders.
"We believe event contracts give people a tool to engage in real-time decision-making, unlocking a new asset class that democratizes access to events as they unfold," Robinhood said at the time.
Trading on Interactive Brokers' event contracts platform is scheduled to resume at 4:15 PM CT on Tuesday, and will close at midnight. Until then – and until the polls close – traders on that exchange may very well change their tune on the Trump versus Harris contest.
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