Jackson Hole conference begins, here’s what’s expected

The annual gathering of economic minds has some tough questions to consider.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s annual gathering in Jackson Hole, Wyoming gets underway with a dinner on Thursday evening. Here’s what to expect from the two-day conference featuring central bankers from around the world:

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell leads the speaker line-up with a keynote speech on Friday at 10:05 a.m. ET.

Investors will parse his highly anticipated speech for clues on the outlook for interest rates, which the Fed in July lifted to a range of 5.25% to 5.5%, the highest level in 22 years.

Pricing in futures markets reflect an expectation that policymakers will hold rates steady when they gather on Sept. 19-20, and they see about a one-in-three chance for a quarter-point hike in November.

Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid is hosting the conference just days after officially starting in his new role on Aug. 21. Schmid replaces Esther George, who retired in January.

While no regional bank presidents or members of the Fed’s board of governors are listed to speak on the main program schedule, all of them are set to attend, and several have media interviews scheduled for Friday.

Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker appears on Bloomberg Television at 11 a.m. eastern time Friday, and will also speak on Yahoo! Finance at 11:30 a.m. Cleveland chief Loretta Mester will appear on CNBC at 11:30 a.m. and on BTV at 2:30 p.m. Chicago’s Austan Goolsbee speaks on CNBC at 12:30 p.m. and on BTV at 2 p.m.

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde’s 3 p.m. speech will be her first major remarks since officials raised interest rates on July 27 but left future decisions dependent on fresh data. With economic prospects worsening, investors will listen closely for any clues on the outcome of the next policy meeting in September.

Other attendees include central bankers from across the globe, including Portugal’s Mario Centeno, South Africa’s Lesetja Kganyago, Australia’s Philip Lowe, Canada’s Tiff Macklem, Germany’s Joachim Nagel, Mexico’s Victoria Rodriguez and Japan’s Kazuo Ueda.

White House Council of Economic Advisers Chair Jared Bernstein and CEA member Heather Boushey — as well as Treasury Undersecretary for Domestic Finance Nellie Liang and her international affairs counterpart, Jay Shambaugh — will also attend.

PANELS, PAPERS

Ueda will take part in a panel on globalization with Bank of England Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent and World Trade Organization Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala on Saturday at 12:25 p.m. eastern time.

Economists will also present four papers during the conference.

Friday’s programming kicks off at 10:30 a.m., with the University of Chicago’s Yueran Ma presenting a paper that examines whether the macroeconomic environment has impacted long-run shifts in the economy.

At 11:55 a.m., Stanford University Professor Darrell Duffie presents his paper on structural changes in financial markets and the conduct of monetary policy.

At 12:55 p.m., Stanford’s Charles Jones, Chicago University’s Chad Syverson and ADP Research Institute chief economist Nela Richardson discuss structural constraints on growth.

In Saturday’s first paper, at 10 a.m., Harvard’s Laura Alfaro discusses global production networks. At 11 a.m., UC Berkley’s Barry Eichengreen presents a paper on global financial flows.