Trump favors $40-$50 oil, Goldman analysis reveals

by Jake Lloyd-Smith

President Donald Trump appears to prefer US oil prices between $40 and $50 a barrel, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc., citing an in-house analysis of his social-media posts on the topic.

Trump “has always been focused on oil and on US energy dominance, having posted nearly 900 times,” analysts including Daan Struyven said in a report. His “inferred preference for WTI appears to be around $40 to $50 a barrel, where his propensity to post about oil prices bottoms,” they said.

Oil prices — both global crude benchmark Brent, as well as US counterpart West Texas Intermediate, or WTI — are often buffeted by the president’s prolific social-media commentary, which can reference everything from OPEC policy and US gasoline prices to sanctions against nations including Iran. His administration has favored increased domestic production, as well as a broad push for cheap energy to help bring down inflation.

The US leader “tends to call for lower prices (or celebrate falling prices) when WTI is greater than $50,” the analysts said. “In contrast, President Trump has called for higher prices when prices are very low (WTI less than $30) often in the context of supporting US production.”

WTI — which last traded just above $63 a barrel — has shed 12% so far this year, hurt by the fallout from Trump’s trade tariffs, as well as a decision by OPEC+ to loosen supply curbs at a faster-than-expected pace. Still, prices have recovered some ground after the US and China scaled back some levies for 90 days, rising from a four-year closing low seen earlier this month.

The president’s “inferred preference for relatively low oil prices directionally supports our view that oil prices are likely to edge lower in 2025-2026,” the analysts said, while also noting upside risks to expectations given the recent de-escalation of trade tensions between Washington and Beijing.

Copyright Bloomberg News