Market performance pushes DB pension plans further into positive territory

Defined-benefit pension plans headed further into the black last month with a $57 billion boost to their funded status.

The Milliman 100 Public Pension Funding Index posted a funded ratio of 76.8% in July, up from 75.8% a month earlier as positive market performance boosted pension plans’ investment returns by an estimated aggregate of 1.9% (with a range for individual plans of 0.1%-1.9%).

During July, the deficit between the estimated assets and liabilities decreased from $1.467 trillion at the beginning of the month to $1.410 trillion at the end of the month.

The approximately $82 billion of market value gained by the plans was offset by net cash flow of around $10 billion and taking the total value of assets of the funds in the index to $4.7 trillion.

"The July 31 funded status is now the highest ratio we've seen since May 31, 2022, when it reached 78.4%," said Becky Sielman, co-author of Milliman's PPFI. "This improvement pushed two more plans over the 90% funded mark, for a total of 19, while the number of plans less than 60% funded remains stable at 23."

MULTIEMPLOYER PLANS

Milliman has also published the midyear results of its Multiemployer Pension Funding Study, which analyzes the funded status of all multiemployer defined benefit pension plans in the U.S.

At the half-way point of the year, the funding shortfall for all multiemployer plans fell by about $65 billion, resulting in an aggregate funded percentage of 87%, up from 79% at the end of 2022.

Around 45 plans received special financial assistance totaling almost $50 billion and without that the aggregate funded percentage would have been 81%. The report says that those plans that received the funding were insolvent or about to be.

"The funded status of most plans will continue to be influenced primarily by investment returns," said Tim Connor, a principal at Milliman and co-author of the MPFS. "The plans that receive SFA may be able to pursue new strategies that weren't feasible before thanks to a boosted funded percentage. With nearly 30 years of expected solvency ahead of them, these plans can consider a merger with another plan or changes in plan design that may improve their chances to extend solvency indefinitely."