These fund categories are lagging in the bull run

Energy, real estate and small-cap value funds have struggled this year compared to other categories.
OCT 25, 2017

You're supposed to buy low and sell high. How does that work for mutual funds and ETFs? It's a starting point, not a strategy. Last year's stock laggards have become this year's leaders. Funds that invest in India, for example, gained just 0.65% last year, according to Morningstar; they're up 35.01% this year. Similarly, U.S. large-cap growth funds rose just 3.23% in 2016, and they have jumped 22.21% this year. The laggards in this year's remarkable bull market include: • Equity energy, down 13.95%, and energy limited partnership funds, down 9.77%. Both sectors have been dragged down by flat – but historically low – oil prices. • Real estate, up 4.2%, still digesting average gains of 28.03% in 2014, and dogged by declining retail brick-and-mortar stores. • Small-cap value funds, up 5.69%, and dwarfed by the outsized gains of the giant FAANG stocks – Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix and Google. The problem is that losing sectors can remain in the doghouse for a long time. Equity precious metals funds – gold miners, mainly – have gained just 7.81% this year, but have averaged an 11.98% loss the past five years. Equity natural resources funds have lost an average 5.07% the past five years. "If I had to choose, I'd rather shop on the list of laggards than on the list of winners," said Russel Kinnel, Morningstar's director of mutual fund research. "Value is a discipline that keeps you going in a direction you normally wouldn't go." Another approach would be to look at funds with the largest outflows the past 12 months. Typically, this doesn't mean that managers took stupid pills: It means that their approach is out of favor. This has been particularly true of growth funds. "People have been selling large-cap growth funds for a decade, and collectively, that has been a disaster," Mr. Kinnel said. The trend has continued the past 12 months. Fidelity Contrafund (FCNTX) for example, has seen estimated net outflows of $16 billion the past 12 months, according to Morningstar. The fund has soared 27.45% this year. Similarly, the American Funds Growth Fund of America (AGTHX) has watched a net $5.9 billion hit the exits: It's up 20.05%. Obviously, neither buying laggards or buying heavily redeemed funds is a guarantee of success. But if you're looking for ideas, it's best to remember that the last will often become first in mutual fund rankings. Just not always.

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