There’s a roughly one-in-four chance that the United States will hit the so-called X-date — at which the U.S. government runs out of cash — without a deal to raise the debt limit, and the odds are getting worse, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.
“We still think the most likely outcome is a deal signed into law before the X-date, though we see the odds of passing that date without an increase in the ceiling at around 25% and rising,” JPMorgan chief U.S. economist Michael Feroli said Wednesday in a note to clients.
“In this latter scenario, we think there is a very high likelihood Treasury would prioritize principal and interest payments,” he wrote. “While doing so would avoid a technical default, there would still be several adverse effects, including a likely downgrade of the U.S. credit rating.”
A potential deal including cuts to federal government spending could reduce U.S. gross domestic product by 0.1% to 0.5% in 2024, depending on the details, JPMorgan's Feroli said.
According to a popular economic model for monetary policy known as the Taylor rule, that would suggest the Federal Reserve needs to make one fewer quarter-point interest-rate hike in order to bring inflation down, he said.
A new proposal could end the ban on promoting client reviews in states like California and Connecticut, giving state-registered advisors a level playing field with their SEC-registered peers.
Morningstar research data show improved retirement trajectories for self-directors and allocators placed in managed accounts.
Some in the industry say that more UBS financial advisors this year will be heading for the exits.
The Wall Street giant has blasted data middlemen as digital freeloaders, but tech firms and consumer advocates are pushing back.
Research reveals a 4% year-on-year increase in expenses that one in five Americans, including one-quarter of Gen Xers, say they have not planned for.
Orion's Tom Wilson on delivering coordinated, high-touch service in a world where returns alone no longer set you apart.
Barely a decade old, registered index-linked annuities have quickly surged in popularity, thanks to their unique blend of protection and growth potential—an appealing option for investors looking to chart a steadier course through today's choppy market waters, says Myles Lambert, Brighthouse Financial.
