Donald Trump presidency improbable, not impossible

When billionaire real estate developer Donald Trump jumped into the U.S. presidential race in June, the Daily News covered the event with the dismissive headline “Clown Runs for Prez.” A front-page picture showed the reality TV personality wearing a red rubber nose and face-painted smile. Six months later, few people in the media or politics see non-establishment candidates as a joke. Just ask Hillary Clinton and Jeb Bush. Mr. Bush has fallen to 5% among Republican voters nationwide while The Donald climbs once again, to a new high of 41%, according to the most recent CNN/ORC poll. The latest surges by political outsider Mr. Trump and liberal insurgent Sen. Bernie Sanders on the Democratic side should make the investment advice industry sit up and take notice. Indeed, Mr. Sanders heads into today's Iowa caucuses with a good chance to defeat one of the most experienced candidates. As InvestmentNews regulation reporter Mark Schoeff Jr. points out in this week's cover story, Ms. Clinton “is not having the smooth journey to the Democratic presidential nomination that many anticipated,” and Mr. Trump “is channeling the anger and frustration toward political leaders that is coursing through part of the Republican Party.”

EXTREME VOLATILITY

Potential repercussions for the wealth management and financial advisory business still are little understood. What is clear is that the rise of these unlikely candidates means more uncertainty and turmoil ahead. Just as financial markets kicked off 2016 with extreme volatility, the political landscape is now fraught with volatility heightened by the unexpected rise of non-establishment candidates. “There's such disdain for politics right now, anything can happen,” Paul Auslander, director of financial planning at ProVise Management Group, told InvestmentNews. Right on cue, enter Michael Bloomberg — maybe. The former New York mayor and billionaire owner of Bloomberg Media is reportedly contemplating an independent run. The Democrat-turned-Republican-turned-Independent may wage a third-party campaign if Mr. Trump (or Sen. Ted Cruz) and Mr. Sanders emerge as the presumptive nominees. Politics as usual? Not this year. Another Bush-Clinton showdown seemed inevitable just six months ago, but the likelihood of that has faded. As black swan events in the markets remind us, the unexpected always seems to happen just when people least expect it. This time it may occur in the political realm.