There’s a roughly one-in-four chance that the United States will hit the so-called X-date — at which the U.S. government runs out of cash — without a deal to raise the debt limit, and the odds are getting worse, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.
“We still think the most likely outcome is a deal signed into law before the X-date, though we see the odds of passing that date without an increase in the ceiling at around 25% and rising,” JPMorgan chief U.S. economist Michael Feroli said Wednesday in a note to clients.
“In this latter scenario, we think there is a very high likelihood Treasury would prioritize principal and interest payments,” he wrote. “While doing so would avoid a technical default, there would still be several adverse effects, including a likely downgrade of the U.S. credit rating.”
A potential deal including cuts to federal government spending could reduce U.S. gross domestic product by 0.1% to 0.5% in 2024, depending on the details, JPMorgan's Feroli said.
According to a popular economic model for monetary policy known as the Taylor rule, that would suggest the Federal Reserve needs to make one fewer quarter-point interest-rate hike in order to bring inflation down, he said.
From outstanding individuals to innovative organizations, find out who made the final shortlist for top honors at the IN awards, now in its second year.
Cresset's Susie Cranston is expecting an economic recession, but says her $65 billion RIA sees "great opportunity" to keep investing in a down market.
“There’s a big pull to alternative investments right now because of volatility of the stock market,” Kevin Gannon, CEO of Robert A. Stanger & Co., said.
Sellers shift focus: It's not about succession anymore.
Platform being adopted by independent-minded advisors who see insurance as a core pillar of their business.
RIAs face rising regulatory pressure in 2025. Forward-looking firms are responding with embedded technology, not more paperwork.
As inheritances are set to reshape client portfolios and next-gen heirs demand digital-first experiences, firms are retooling their wealth tech stacks and succession models in real time.