There’s a roughly one-in-four chance that the United States will hit the so-called X-date — at which the U.S. government runs out of cash — without a deal to raise the debt limit, and the odds are getting worse, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.
“We still think the most likely outcome is a deal signed into law before the X-date, though we see the odds of passing that date without an increase in the ceiling at around 25% and rising,” JPMorgan chief U.S. economist Michael Feroli said Wednesday in a note to clients.
“In this latter scenario, we think there is a very high likelihood Treasury would prioritize principal and interest payments,” he wrote. “While doing so would avoid a technical default, there would still be several adverse effects, including a likely downgrade of the U.S. credit rating.”
A potential deal including cuts to federal government spending could reduce U.S. gross domestic product by 0.1% to 0.5% in 2024, depending on the details, JPMorgan's Feroli said.
According to a popular economic model for monetary policy known as the Taylor rule, that would suggest the Federal Reserve needs to make one fewer quarter-point interest-rate hike in order to bring inflation down, he said.
Chicago-based Mesirow Fiduciary Solutions adds flexPATH's plan-level outsourced fiduciary book, boosting its retirement market reach to $164 billion.
Also, Raymond James's employee advisor channel adds breakaways from Wells Fargo and Stifel, while UBS welcomes an ex-Morgan Stanley duo in Indiana.
It promised guaranteed principal and 10% monthly returns. The SEC says it invested nothing.
Ten years after entering the fee-based annuity market, MassMutual Ascend says nearly half its lifetime sales came in the past two years alone – but barriers remain among fee-only advisors.
Amplify, WealthReach, Zeplyn and Zocks have unveiled partnerships aimed at automating portfolio management, content creation, account opening, and client communication.
Northern Trust’s Ken Lassner shows advisors how to convert volatility into after-tax portfolio gains
Dan Biagini of American Equity says the steady decline of pensions, longer lifespans and a reset in interest rates are rewriting how advisors build retirement income
