The potential for political upheaval on Capitol Hill following the Nov. 2 election has grabbed the attention of many financial interest groups — and has some preparing to change the targets for their advocacy efforts.
Most political prognosticators are predicting a Republican take-over of the House. But even if the GOP falls short, individual Democrats could lose, ushering in key changes on congressional committees.
“Whatever happens, we can promise you that we'll be prepared for it,” Brian Graff, chief executive of the American Society of Pension Professionals and Actuaries, said at his organization's annual conference in Washington on Oct. 17.
For instance, Rep. Paul Kanjorski, D-Pa., is one lawmaker who has a good deal of influence on issues pertaining to financial advisers. Mr. Kanjorski, a champion of the fiduciary standard, is the chairman of the House Financial Services Subcommittee on Capital Markets, Insurance and Government Sponsored Enterprises.
Several recent polls, however, show him trailing Republican Lou Barletta.
Mr. Kanjorski has won previous re-election campaigns by comfortable margins — though Mr. Barletta garnered 48% of the vote in his 2008 race against Mr. Kanjorski.
Both Mr. Kanjorksi and Mr. Barletta have raised a substantial amount of campaign funds — $1.7 million and $907,584, respectively. In addition, outside groups have had a big impact, spending $1.1 million in support of Mr. Kanjorski and $1.2 million in opposition to him, according to OpenSecrets.org, a website that tracks political spending.
In another election that could affect the future of retirement policy, Rep. Earl Pomeroy, D-N.D, a champion of pension reform and chairman of a key Ways and Means subcommittee, is in danger of losing his seat in the elections next month.
“He's in a bit of trouble,” Mr. Graff said.
Mr. Pomeroy is in a tight race against Republican Rick Berg. Both candidates have built big war chests — $2.7 million for Mr. Pomeroy and $1.6 million for Mr. Berg as of Sept. 30.
With the political winds swirling for the near future, it will be impossible to predict the outcome of this race or any other, according to Mr. Graff.
“We have no idea what's going to happen on Nov. 2,” he said. “This is going to be a watershed election. It's going to have a tremendous impact on the climate here in D.C.”
Whether there is a Republican wave that wipes out House and Senate Democratic majorities or just a number of Republican pickups in each chamber, interest groups have to be prepared.
The ASPPA has expanded its congressional-affairs staff, Mr. Graff said.
“It's going to present a new challenge,” he said.
Even before voters have cast their ballots, change is already pervasive in Washington, thanks to an abundance of rulemaking at the Labor Department and the Securities and Exchange Commission, among other departments and agencies.
“I cannot remember a time when there's been such a significant amount of regulatory activity happening all at the same time on different fronts,” Mr. Graff said.
E-mail Mark Schoeff Jr. at [email protected]
