Married retirees in the US could see their Social Security benefits reduced by nearly a fourth in just over seven years, according to a new analysis from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.
The group’s latest projections, based on the Social Security Trustees’ latest annual report and recent legislative changes, suggest that the program’s trust funds are on track to be depleted by late 2032, triggering automatic benefit reductions for millions.
The analysis published on Thursday estimates that a dual-earning couple retiring at the start of 2033 would face an $18,100 annual cut in Social Security benefits. The reduction, equivalent to 24% of scheduled benefits, would take effect as soon as the trust fund reserves run out and payments become limited to incoming revenues.
“We estimate that this would be equal to an $18,100 annual benefit cut for a dual-earning couple retiring at the start of 2033 – shortly after trust fund insolvency,” the CRFB wrote in its July 24 analysis.
The impact would vary depending on household circumstances. A typical single-earner couple would see a $13,600 reduction, while a dual-earner low-income couple would lose $11,000 per year. High-income couples could face cuts closer to $24,000 annually.
While the dollar amount is smaller for lower-income couples, the financial impact would be more severe as the reduction would represent a larger share of their income and past earnings. The analysis noted that those figures are in nominal dollars and would be about fifteen percent smaller when adjusted to 2025 dollars.
The Committee’s projections also highlighted the effect of the recently enacted One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which reduces Social Security revenue by cutting tax rates and increasing the senior standard deduction.
According to the analysis, “the tax rate cuts and increase in the senior standard deduction from the recently enacted OBBBA would reduce Social Security’s revenue from the income taxation of benefits, increasing the required cut by about a percentage point upon insolvency.” Should those measures be made permanent, the benefit reductions could be even larger.
The Social Security Trustees’ report released in June projected that the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance trust fund would go insolvent in 2033, at which point retirees would face an automatic 23% benefit cut under current law. The report also found that Social Security faces cash deficits totaling $3.6 trillion over the next decade and a 75-year actuarial deficit of 3.82% of taxable payroll, the largest shortfall in nearly fifty years.
The CRFB warned that the gap between Social Security’s costs and revenues is expected to widen, leading to deeper automatic cuts over time. If nothing is done to change the status quo, it said the required benefit reduction could exceed 30% by the end of the century.
“It is time for policymakers to tell the truth about the program’s finances and to pursue trust fund solutions to head off insolvency and improve the program for current and future generations," the CRFB said.
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