Bold claims of high returns on investments can raise red flags, but when they come from an expert in behavioral economics and financial modeling, it’s at least worth finding out more.
Dr. Dan Geller is the creator of the Money Anxiety Index, author of ‘Build Your Wealth and Keep Your Health’ and lead author of a 2023 peer-reviewed study which shows that when the level of money anxiety increases, people default to their instinctive-response mode making flawed financial decisions that are often wrong and very costly to them.
However, it’s the new IRA account launched by his firm Analyticom which piqued my interest, for its bold claim that it can make retirees millionaires (or ‘Retirenaires’) by accelerating the long-term average annual returns to 20%.
Geller says that his Scientifically Predictable investing model enables the accounts to far exceed a typical 5% annual return based on the rule of 72 model which would take more than 14 years to double the investor’s money when linked to a 5-year Certificate of Deposit. Linking to the S&P 500 could still take more than 7 years. Geller says his account could deliver in 3.6 years.
But how does his model work and how does it produce consistent results?
“Science has established that we have two modes of decision making; instinctive (System 1) and analytical (System 2), and that we alternate between these two modes based on our level of money anxiety,” Geller explains. “When money anxiety is elevated, we tend to make instinctive decisions, and when money anxiety is low, we tend to make analytical decisions. The Scientifically Predictable investing model (SPIM) can project how investors are going to make buy/sell decisions based on the level of money anxiety. Thus, the SPIM is able to identify ETFs that are the least likely to be impacted by instinctive decisions of investors, and therefore, outperform the market.”
The model focuses on investing always in the top 5 ETFs and is designed for self-directed investors.
About that 20% figure; is this based on back-testing, live performance, or a combination?
“It is based on a combination of both for 6 years: 2018 to 2023 a total return of 90.5% as documented in page 19 of the study, plus a return of 29.7% in 2024 actual performance, for a total of 120.7% over 6 years = 20% average per year,” explains Geller.
Geller says that Retirenaire IRA is subject to all rules governing IRA accounts (Taxation etc.), but it is exempt from investment advisory registration based on SEC's publisher's exclusion Section 202(a)(11)(D).
While many will be skeptical, Geller says this new model for IRAs could be a gamechanger.
“This is the greatest opportunity for banks and credit unions to attract new deposits to their institution and to reward their customers with an account that will allow their to retire comfortably,” he concludes.
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