Retirement uncertainty grows as confidence in Social Security slips

For decades, Social Security has been treated as the closest thing Americans have to a guaranteed pay check. Increasingly, however, many aren’t convinced that guarantee will hold. In fact, most Americans 45 and older are not confident that Social Security benefits will remain intact throughout their retirement years, according to new research.

The 2026 Social Security Confidence Survey from PlanGap found that 69% of Americans age 45 and older lack confidence that benefits will remain available at current levels. Just three-tenths expressed confidence in the program’s future.

Read more: Retirement confidence slips as Americans grapple with rising costs and policy fears

The findings come weeks after the Social Security Board of Trustees reported that the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance trust fund, which pays retirement benefits, is projected to be depleted in 2032. At that point, incoming payroll tax revenue would be sufficient to pay only a portion of scheduled benefits unless Congress takes action.

The survey suggests many Americans expect benefit reductions to be part of the solution. Sixty-eight percent of respondents said they believe Washington will address Social Security’s funding challenge through some form of benefit reduction, whether by raising the eligibility age or reducing benefits for some or all recipients.

At the same time, Americans remain heavily dependent on the program. Eighty-three percent said Social Security will play a major or moderate role in the success of their retirement plans, while 60% expect it to provide at least half of their retirement income.

“For six years, our survey has shown the same basic reality: Americans approaching retirement do not view Social Security uncertainty as an abstract policy issue,” David Duley, founder and CEO of PlanGap, said in a statement. “They see it as a direct threat to the retirement plans they have spent decades building.”

The survey also found that 68% of respondents are concerned a “great deal” or “a lot” that they may not receive their full Social Security benefits as promised.

Read more: Retirement is the new American Dream, but millions doubt they’ll get there

This year’s survey pointed to another emerging concern as well: artificial intelligence. When asked to compare the stress of a new potential 22% monthly Social Security benefit cut to other major life events, respondents most frequently selected losing a job to AI, cited by 18% of participants. That ranked ahead of the death of a loved one, a cancer diagnosis and another global pandemic.

Overall, 80% of respondents said they feel frustrated, angry, scared or nervous that potential benefit cuts could negatively affect their retirement plans. Just 11% said they remain hopeful the government will resolve the issue without reducing benefits.

For advisors, the findings highlight a growing challenge: helping clients prepare for retirement while balancing continued reliance on Social Security with increasing uncertainty about the program's long-term future.