Advisers predict 4.4% gain in S&P 500 for 2022

Financial advisers expect markets to remain volatile in the second half of 2022 but predict the S&P 500 ultimately will post a gain of 4.4% for the year, according to findings of a survey conducted by Natixis Investment Managers.

The bullish forecast, coming after the worst first-half in the equity market since 1970, was based on a survey of 300 financial advisers in the U.S. as part of a global survey of 2,700 advisers globally. The survey was conducted in March and April. U.S. advisers were less bullish than those globally, who expect the MSCI World Index to return 6.4% this year.

U.S. advisers view the biggest risks to their outlook as inflation (66%) and rising interest rates (61%), followed by geopolitical conflicts (46%), including the war in Ukraine. Relatively few (28%) are concerned about valuations now, and fewer still (9%) are worried about the risk of new Covid-19 variants.

U.S. advisers say they are confident their clients can still realistically achieve 7% average annual growth above inflation over the long term; however, their return assumptions are 220 basis points lower than the 9.2% annual returns they believe their clients are expecting.