Americans are concerned about tariff impact, latest inflation stats no relief

The latest official inflation stats showing a 0.1% monthly decline, the first in five years, might have offered some hope for budget-squeezed Americans in normal times.

After all, inflation has been the cause of tough spending choices, increased debt, retirement savings fears, and credit delinquencies. But we are not in normal times, so the March CPI print that reflects a period pre-tariffs will do nothing to ease the concerns of households already under financial stress.

Two polls this week have put inflation as the top concern for American households but also highlight the expectation that tariffs will mean higher prices while the US economy may be destined for recession.

Among the gloomiest snapshots of consumer sentiment is the CNBC/SurveyMonkey Your Money survey which was conducted online among more than 4000 Americans between April 3-7.

It found that 73% of respondents feel stressed about their finances, 74% believe the US is heading towards recession, and most cite inflation as their top stressor followed by high interest rates, tariffs, and layoffs. Seven in ten say groceries are more expensive now than one year ago.

Almost three quarters said they oppose President Trump’s tariffs and 55% are disapproving of the impact of the president’s actions on their finances. More than six in ten expressed concern about how federal workforce and budget cuts will affect Social Security with 35% expecting the benefit to cover most or all of their retirement living costs.

Of those with investments, 46% have not made changes to their investments, assets, or portfolios, while 41% have including 19% who have adjusted investments, 14% who have decreased investments, and 9% who have increased investments. Half of those who took part in the poll say they stock market is worse now than a year ago.

A separate survey of middle-income Americans by Primerica also put inflation as the top concern.

Around eight in ten respondents expect groceries, utilities, and fuel costs to rise in the coming months and 46% expect their finances to worsen in the next year, up from 27% at the end of last year. Just 18% are expecting improvement.

Fifty-three percent anticipate getting money back on their tax returns this year, with the top plans for those refunds including: saving (38%), paying down debt (32%) and/or paying outstanding bills (30%).

“Middle-income Americans are navigating a financial landscape that feels increasingly unpredictable, with rising costs stretching household budgets and disproportionately impacting middle-income families, accounting for over 55% of the U.S. population,” said Amy Crews Cutts, Ph.D., CBE®, economic consultant to Primerica. “Cost increases are weighing heavily on households, signaling deep unease about the road ahead.”