As President Donald Trump rolls out a sweeping global tariff initiative, new survey data suggest the American public is increasingly bracing for economic turbulence – with voters split on whether the long-term strategy will pay off.
A new national poll released by HarrisX on Wednesday reveals widespread concerns about inflation and recession risk tied to the renewed tariff push.
The pulse survey results were unveiled just as the White House announced a 90-day pause on the tariff salvo.
Among more than 1,850 registered voters in the survey, 72 percent expect the policy will result in higher consumer prices – a sentiment that cuts across political lines. That includes 84 percent of Democrats, 73 percent of Independents, and 62 percent of Republicans.
Economic anxiety extends to fears of a downturn. Seventy-one percent of respondents believe the tariffs will induce a short-term recession, with majorities in all parties echoing the concern.
“Americans are worried about what tariffs will mean for their wallets in the near term, but there's still hope among many that this policy could pay off in the long run,” Dritan Nesho, CEO and chief pollster at HarrisX, said in a statement. “The data highlights both economic anxiety and a belief in the strategic leverage of tariffs, although that is shrinking.”
Still, the public remains divided on the broader implications of tariffs. Just under half – 47 percent – believe they will ultimately promote economic growth, while 53 percent predict long-term harm. Views on this divide are highly partisan: three-quarters of Republicans express optimism about the policy’s outcomes, compared to 75 percent of Democrats who foresee economic decline.
Behavioral signals from consumers also reflect increasing caution. While spending on essentials like groceries (77 percent) and beverages (72 percent) has held steady, discretionary purchases are slowing. Less than half of respondents say they are buying appliances (43 percent), upgrading phones (44 percent), or shopping for new vehicles (29 percent) at their usual pace.
Business decision-makers and investors, while similarly concerned about recession, are slightly more upbeat on capital markets. Seventy-nine percent of executives surveyed believe the tariffs could trigger a short-term recession, but 58 percent still insist it’s a good time to invest in equities. Among retail investors, 52 percent agree.
The outlook is even rosier among crypto investors, with 67 percent viewing the current environment as favorable for digital assets.
Meanwhile, a separate Pew Research Center study conducted just prior to the latest announcements shed additional light on the reaction to Chinese tariffs, with 52 percent of Americans polled believing those increased levies will harm the US economy. A comparable share – 53 percent – say the policy shift will hurt them personally.
Only 24 percent think the tariffs on Chinese goods – which Trump ratcheted up to 125 percent on Wednesday – will benefit the country, while just 10 percent believe they’ll be good for their own finances.
Support for Trump’s broader tariff approach is fractured. The HarrisX data show 48 percent of voters believe the new policies go too far, while 35 percent say the scale is appropriate. An 18 percent minority believe they don’t go far enough.
Among all voters, 54 percent back reciprocal tariffs on countries that tax American goods, but less than half believe the tactic will produce concessions from trading partners.
“This moment is a stress test – showing how Americans are weighing near-term costs against long-term hopes,” Nesho said.
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