The economy will continue to be under pressure from rising unemployment and declining industrial output through the first half of 2009. Unemployment will reach 8.5% to 9% by yearend.
SAM LIEBER
Chief executive, portfolio manager
Alpine Funds
Alpine Woods Capital Investors LLC
Purchase, N.Y.
Assets under management:
$5 billion
Forecast:
The economy will continue to be under pressure from rising unemployment and declining industrial output through the first half of 2009. Unemployment will reach 8.5% to 9% by yearend.
However, Mr. Lieber believes that government stimulus packages already introduced, as well as new ones likely to be launched under the Obama administration, should start to affect the economy in the second half of 2009. If this happens, he believes housing will bottom in the middle of 2009.
"It's probably going to take several years before we see a significant improvement in overall liquidity," said Mr. Lieber, who expects commercial real estate to be under pressure from declining demand, falling rents and rising vacancies for the next two years.
The 2009 finish line:
The Dow: Up 20%
he Nasdaq: Up 20%
The S&P 500: Up 20%
Tip Sheet:
Favorite investment: Real estate stocks in China and Brazil.
Favorite sector: Banking.
Next big thing: Investing in Brazilian stocks. Mr Lieber believes Brazil is enjoying solid GDP growth, has a young and growing population, a strong central bank and a big risk premium embedded in its sovereign debt and currency.
Biggest concern: If the government's stimulus initiatives don't have an impact on the economy, credit markets and the housing sector, the downturn could be deeper "for an extended period of time."
Reading, watching, listening to:
Book: "Cod : A Biography of the Fish That Changed the World" by Mark Kurlansky (Penguin Group, 2003).
TV: "House," "McNeil Lehrer Report," "Charlie Rose."
Primary news sources: The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, Financial Times and Bloomberg.
