Capsule: Sam Lieber, Alpine Funds

The economy will continue to be under pressure from rising unemployment and declining industrial output through the first half of 2009. Unemployment will reach 8.5% to 9% by yearend.
JAN 04, 2009
SAM LIEBER Chief executive, portfolio manager Alpine Funds Alpine Woods Capital Investors LLC Purchase, N.Y. Assets under management: $5 billion Forecast: The economy will continue to be under pressure from rising unemployment and declining industrial output through the first half of 2009. Unemployment will reach 8.5% to 9% by yearend. However, Mr. Lieber believes that government stimulus packages already introduced, as well as new ones likely to be launched under the Obama administration, should start to affect the economy in the second half of 2009. If this happens, he believes housing will bottom in the middle of 2009. "It's probably going to take several years before we see a significant improvement in overall liquidity," said Mr. Lieber, who expects commercial real estate to be under pressure from declining demand, falling rents and rising vacancies for the next two years. The 2009 finish line: The Dow: Up 20% he Nasdaq: Up 20% The S&P 500: Up 20% Tip Sheet: Favorite investment: Real estate stocks in China and Brazil. Favorite sector: Banking. Next big thing: Investing in Brazilian stocks. Mr Lieber believes Brazil is enjoying solid GDP growth, has a young and growing population, a strong central bank and a big risk premium embedded in its sovereign debt and currency. Biggest concern: If the government's stimulus initiatives don't have an impact on the economy, credit markets and the housing sector, the downturn could be deeper "for an extended period of time." Reading, watching, listening to: Book: "Cod : A Biography of the Fish That Changed the World" by Mark Kurlansky (Penguin Group, 2003). TV: "House," "McNeil Lehrer Report," "Charlie Rose." Primary news sources: The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, Financial Times and Bloomberg.

Latest News

FINRA fines Vanguard $950,000 over decade of cost basis errors
FINRA fines Vanguard $950,000 over decade of cost basis errors

Faulty Forms 1099 and account statements reportedly left some Vanguard brokerage customers overpaying or underpaying taxes for over a decade.

More ETFs, more opportunity, more homework
More ETFs, more opportunity, more homework

The democratization of ETFs cuts both ways

Advisor moves: Raymond James, Baird add significant teams in latest recruiting push
Advisor moves: Raymond James, Baird add significant teams in latest recruiting push

Independent broker-dealers snap up experienced advisors as competition for established practices intensifies.

Wells Fargo names COO Scott Powell as its next chief risk officer
Wells Fargo names COO Scott Powell as its next chief risk officer

Derek Flowers, a nearly 30-year veteran, is set to retire in mid-January, handing the reins to the executive who helped lead the bank's regulatory turnaround.

Ameriprise runs advisor ads on ESPN, Golf Channel, CBS
Ameriprise runs advisor ads on ESPN, Golf Channel, CBS

The campaign spans broadcast TV and streaming, as the brokerage faces slowing client net flows and an $8.1 billion advisor team that left to launch an RIA this month.

SPONSORED In the Age of AI, Trust Becomes the Advisor's Greatest Asset

As AI makes financial information more accessible than ever, Lana Hock explains why human judgment, trust, and empathy remain the qualities clients value most in a financial advisor

SPONSORED Direct indexing webinar targets tax-loss harvesting amid market swings

Northern Trust’s Ken Lassner shows advisors how to convert volatility into after-tax portfolio gains