Carson Group's M&A head sees '10-to-15 year bull market' for RIAs

Carson Group anticipates M&A activity and valuations of RIAs will continue its bull run over the next decade, as the $42 billion Nebraska-based mega RIA has already completed 12 deals so far this year.

“I'm just a big believer that based on demographics alone, we are looking at a 10-to-15 year bull market in M&A in the RIA and independent wealth space,” said Michael Belluomini, SVP of mergers and acquisitions at Carson Group. “And I think the level of transactions that have been happening and that trend over the past five years certainly indicate that. There are a lot of advisors that are in the back half of their career that have not figured out what they're going to do with their business that is liquid and relatively easy to sell.”

Since 2020, the median adjusted EBITDA multiple for valuing RIAs has increased by nearly 40%, according to Brandon Kawal of Advisor Growth Strategies and author of the 2025 RIA Deal Room Report. Kawal says buyers are now assessing an average 11x EBITDA multiple price tag on RIA firms they acquire, while Carson Group is setting price tags of 15X EBITDA multiples for some firms.

“Most of the firms that we are buying are $500 million in assets, or up. Usually EBITDA is anywhere from one and a half to much larger,” Belluomini said. “We've had businesses in the three or four billion EBITDA range, those multiples are quite a bit higher. So we're seeing healthy double digits, and in some cases, with growth earn outs included, certainly seeing the mid teens.”

Carson Group has added roughly $4 billion in AUM so far this year while acquiring RIAs in Colorado, Florida, and Michigan, among others. Belluomini, who joined Carson in 2022 following 16 years at the Osaic-owned broker dealer Securities America, says selling firms enter negotiating tables now with a strong familiarity of EBITDA, as opposed to previous revenue-based sale metrics. 

“Maybe four years ago, you would have a conversation with a seller that had an idea of valuations more in line with something that you would have seen historically about 10 years ago, so one-times commissionable revenue, or two-times advisory revenue, where it was much more of a one advisor selling their book of business to another advisory. You're now seeing larger enterprises or practices come to market, which is why we have moved to multiples of EBITDA,” said Belluomini.

The Bain Capital-backed Carson Group views its acquisition approach as often serving as a lifeline for second-generation advisors to avoid taking out loans to continue owning their RIAs.

“They're coming into those conversations, asking questions around the bottom line revenue and what adjustments have been made to EBITDA as the valuation has been calculated,” Belluomini says of his talks with prospective sellers. “Everything has gotten a little bit more expensive, but I also think it's a healthy market. I think people knowing the value of their own firms is a good thing.”