US consumer sentiment has fallen again with a key barometer dropping, while businesses are weighing how to navigate an uncertain future.
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index for April was down almost 8 points from last month to 86.0, the fifth monthly decline and remaining at levels not seen since the early days of the Covid pandemic.
There were declines for the sub-indexes tracking consumers’ assessments of current business and labor market conditions, and expectations for short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions. The latter fell to a level not seen since 2011.
The bleakest picture was from those aged 35-55 and in households earning more than $125K a year, although all age groups and most income bands also showed weaker sentiment this month.
"The decline was largely driven by consumers' expectations. The three expectation components—business conditions, employment prospects, and future income—all deteriorated sharply, reflecting pervasive pessimism about the future,” said Stephanie Guichard, senior economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board.
Among the stark indicators of falling sentiment was that the share of consumers expecting fewer jobs in the next six months (32%) was nearly as high as in April 2009, in the middle of the Great Recession.
“In addition, expectations about future income prospects turned clearly negative for the first time in five years, suggesting that concerns about the economy have now spread to consumers worrying about their own personal situations. However, consumers' views of the present have held up, containing the overall decline in the Index," added Guichard.
The high volatility seen in the financial markets in recent weeks has exacerbated a negative view of the stock markets outlook.
“48.5% expecting stock prices to decline over the next 12 months (the highest share since October 2011),” explained Guichard. “Meanwhile, average 12-month inflation expectations reached 7% in April—the highest since November 2022, when the US was experiencing extremely high inflation."
Meanwhile, businesses have mixed feelings so far in 2025.
The national Citizens Business Conditions Index held steady at 50.9 in the first quarter thanks to strong corporate revenue trends, but the second quarter index is likely to more fully reflect the economic impacts of evolving federal policies, including ongoing tariff negotiations.
“Business leaders entered 2025 optimistic about the year ahead,” said Eric Merlis, managing director and co-head of global markets, Citizens. “That initial optimism helped buoy the economy in the first quarter, but the forward outlook from here is more uncertain. Overall, our clients continued to perform well in the first quarter despite elevated market volatility and macroeconomic uncertainty.”
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