As Cyber Monday continues the holiday shopping season that escalated in the run up to Thanksgiving with a focus on Black Friday, what has consumer spending looked like and which retailers are the winners and losers?
Two sets of preliminary data suggest that shoppers were keen to spend but the desire for bargains and convenience means online retailers and those main street brands with strong online presence are likely to have benefited most from increased spending.
Mastercard Spending Pulse reveals a 3.4% year-on-year increase in US retail sales on Black Friday, not adjusted for inflation and covering both online and physical stores. Online saw an increase of almost 15% while online stores gained less than 1%.
“Black Friday was a good indicator of how the holiday season is positively shaping up,” said Michelle Meyer, chief economist, Mastercard Economics Institute. “Our real-time insights show that consumers are comfortably in the gift-giving spirit as price reductions and deals occur across sectors, supporting budgets for holiday shopping.”
Separate early data from in-store foot traffic analysts RetailNext also showed the challenge for physical stores with overall traffic down more than 3% year-over-year on Black Friday and down almost 1% on Saturday.
“While overall traffic remains subdued, we saw some notable reversals from trends observed throughout the year,” said Joe Shasteen, Global Head of Advanced Analytics at RetailNext. “Footwear, which experienced year-over-year traffic declines in nearly every month of 2024, showed resilience during Black Friday weekend. Categories like Apparel, Footwear, and Jewelry saw notable traffic increases on Saturday, indicating that consumers are spreading out their purchases.”
One key factor though is the weather conditions in both the Midwest and Northeast, which will have put many shoppers off visiting stores and may have prompted additional online shopping.
The Mastercard research also highlights the strength of Jewelry, Electronics and Apparel, with the latter showing notable e-commerce growth.
But it also showed that, with finances still leading to cautious spending behavior, value has been a key consideration in the two weeks leading up to Black Friday weekend.
“Shoppers are making the most of seasonal deals and enjoying a balance of experiences spending and gifts for all loved ones,” said Steve Sadove, senior advisor for Mastercard and former CEO and Chairman of Saks Incorporated. “They're more strategic in their shopping though, prioritizing promotions that they believe hold the greatest value — opening their wallets, but with more intentional distribution.”
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