The Standard & Poor's 500 Index (SPX) may advance to between 1,330 and 1,345 this month before the rally reverses, according to Tom DeMark, the creator of indicators to show turning points in securities.
That would represent a rise of at least 5.8 percent for the benchmark gauge for American equities after the worst Thanksgiving-week drop since 1932 depleted sellers, said DeMark, whose prediction in September that the S&P 500's decline would stop at 1,076 proved prescient when the index bottomed at 1,074.77 on Oct. 4. This month's rally will end when the S&P 500 closes higher on four successive days, DeMark said.
“I had the strongest short-term buy signal I've recorded in 40 years” during the week of Thanksgiving, which fell Nov. 24, said DeMark, the founder of Market Studies LLC, in a phone interview. “It'd be an explosive move to the upside.”
The S&P 500 posted the biggest gain since March 2009 last week, rising 7.4 percent, after six central banks made it easier for lenders to obtain U.S. dollars in emergencies and a report showed the American jobless rate dropped to 8.6 percent from 9 percent. The S&P 500 rose 1 percent to 1,257.08 today after Italy's Mario Monti proposed budget cuts and Germany and France pushed for a new European Union treaty to fight the debt crisis.
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“Today's action is credible,” DeMark said in an interview after the close of regular trading on U.S. exchanges on Bloomberg Television's “Street Smart” hosted by Lisa Murphy and Adam Johnson. “Today was a good job for the market, there was some risk that it could move lower, but fortunately the buyers came in after a weekend and that is usually a pretty good sign.”
DeMark, who has spent more than 40 years developing indicators with names like “sequential” and “countdown,” said on Oct. 25 that a rally by the S&P 500 above 1,254 would “trap” bulls. The index peaked three days later, then dropped 9.8 percent through Nov. 25.
“The market should top out around Dec. 21,” DeMark said today. “The market rhythm and market balance equilibrium all require the market rally. Once that's completed, the market will have a vacuum on the downside and we should have a sharp decline.”
DeMark, an adviser to Steven A. Cohen's SAC Capital Advisors LP, provided consulting to hedge funds including George Soros's Soros Fund Management LLC and Leon Cooperman's Omega Advisors Inc. Advisors Inc.
--Bloomberg News--
