Fed's Bostic sees one cut, no recession in 2025

by Catarina Saraiva

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic said he expects the US economy to slow this year but not fall into recession, and reiterated that he sees one interest-rate cut in 2025. 

Bostic said economic growth could come in at 0.5% or 1% this year, as uncertainty and concerns about the outlook weigh on consumers. Fluctuating trade policy has also made businesses more reluctant to make important decisions, Bostic said.

“I have one cut for the year,” Bostic said during a May 14 interview for Bloomberg’s Odd Lots podcast. “In part, it’s because I think the uncertainty is unlikely to resolve itself quickly.”

Bostic pointed to the 90-day delays in the implementation of so-called reciprocal tariffs along with the latest US-China trade de-escalation, noting the final results of the negotiations are still unclear. When asked in the podcast, which aired Friday, if the recent trade truce between the US and China had changed his outlook, Bostic replied, “a little.”

Bostic said last week that he didn’t think it was “prudent” to adjust monetary policy with so little visibility about the path ahead. Fed officials kept interest rates steady at their most recent gathering, and said they see increased risks of both higher unemployment and inflation. Fed Chair Jerome Powell made clear the central bank is in no hurry to lower borrowing costs.  

Bostic said economists at the Atlanta Fed see tariffs as putting upward pressure on inflation. That’s a view shared by many forecasters. 

“That means that our policy is going to have to anticipate — and to some extent — potentially push against those inflationary forces to the extent that we see them, so that will put a limit on where our current policy stance is,” Bostic said. 

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