Former Fed president James Bullard expects three rate cuts

Former Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said he’s expecting three interest-rate cuts this year as inflation moves toward the central bank’s target while the economy remains resilient.

“At this point, you should probably take the committee and chair at face value — their best guess right now is still three cuts this year,” Bullard said Tuesday in a Bloomberg TV interview with Haslinda Amin. “That’s the base case.

“You’re looking at a very successful policy with a pretty strong economy, so a lot of things going right for the Fed right now,” he said on the sidelines of HSBC’s Global Investment Summit in Hong Kong. Economic data already justifies a rate cut, he added.

Bullard’s outlook echoes the Fed’s messaging on monetary policy this year but contrasts with growing market expectations for fewer cuts. Investors have boosted bets that two rate cuts are more likely than three this year following a blowout March payrolls report.

Treasury yields reached their highest levels of the year Monday as traders pushed back expectations for when the Fed will act. Swap contracts priced in around 60 basis points of easing this year beginning in September, a view that assigns less than 50% odds to a third cut in 2024.

Bullard, who left the St. Louis Fed last year to become dean of Purdue University’s business school, was the longest-serving regional Fed president and known for his contrarian takes. While in office, he notably advocated for more aggressive policy action to rein in what was at the time accelerating inflation.

Speaking on stage at the summit, Bullard said a soft landing for the US economy is moving into view. He cited the fall in core personal consumption expenditure data, the Fed’s preferred gauge of underlying inflation, as evidence of the “dramatic success” of its policy.

Bullard’s outlook on cuts is in line with those expressed last week by two Federal Reserve officials who vote on monetary policy decisions this year. 

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said last Tuesday it was reasonable to expect three rate cuts although there was no urgency to make adjustments. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester similarly said she saw that number of cuts as likely appropriate this year but whether fewer will be needed depends on how the economy evolves.

Fed officials agreed in their March meeting that it would be appropriate to begin reducing rates this year, with a median estimate of three cuts. At the same time, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has said that the central bank is in no rush to ease policy, emphasizing more evidence is needed that inflation is moving toward the 2% target the Fed sees as sustainable.

The solid labor market adds to other signs of inflationary pressures holding firm. Consumer prices rose more than expected in February and economists are penciling in another increase in data due Wednesday in the US.

Some officials even see the potential for no cuts at all this year. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said Monday they may not be needed if inflation continues to trend sideways.